Canadians Invest $90 Billion in U.S. Stocks Like NVDA, MSFT, and META Amid Political Strains
Canadian Sentiment Towards U.S. Trade: President Trump's tariffs and threats have led many Canadians to avoid American travel and products, yet they are investing heavily in U.S. stocks.
Investment Trends: In 2025, Canadian investors have purchased C$124 billion ($89.7 billion U.S.) in American equities, marking a significant trend towards U.S. investments amid ongoing trade tensions.
Technology Sector Focus: Canadian investors are particularly drawn to mega-cap technology stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms, influenced by the excitement around artificial intelligence.
Market Performance Comparison: Despite the Toronto Stock Exchange outperforming the S&P 500 (15% vs. 10%), Canadian investors continue to favor U.S. stocks, indicating a disconnect between sentiment and investment choices.
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- Market Concentration Analysis: RBC Wealth Management's Rob Sluymer highlights that the concentration of mega-cap tech stocks has significantly increased over the past few years, leading to investors being overweight in these stocks, which have now declined about 7% year-to-date.
- Nvidia Earnings Preview: Nvidia is set to report its fourth-quarter earnings on February 25, and Sluymer believes this will serve as a crucial market indicator; if the results fall short of expectations, it could trigger a larger correction in tech stocks.
- Investor Sentiment Shift: As attention on tech stocks rises, Sluymer notes that some funds are rotating out of these high-valuation stocks into other sectors, a typical behavior in times of high market concentration.
- Future Market Outlook: Should Nvidia's earnings report disappoint, it may lead to a decline in market confidence in tech stocks, potentially resulting in a broader market correction that could impact overall investment strategies.
- Massive Market Opportunity: Nvidia has negotiated a deal with the U.S. government to resume GPU sales to China, with CEO Jensen Huang estimating the Chinese market could generate up to $50 billion annually, significantly boosting the company's performance.
- Sales Recovery Expectations: Before the ban, Nvidia projected $8 billion in sales from China for Q2 FY 2025; if sales return to similar levels, GPU sales could exceed $30 billion, presenting substantial growth potential.
- Revenue Growth Forecast: Wall Street anticipates Nvidia's revenue will reach $326 billion for FY 2027, but given the surge in AI computing spending, actual revenue could hit $350 billion, further enhancing market confidence.
- Strong Profitability: If Nvidia achieves $350 billion in revenue while maintaining a 56% profit margin, it could generate $196 billion in profits, and with a reasonable 40x earnings valuation, the stock price could rise to $322, indicating a compelling investment opportunity.
- Palantir's High Valuation: Despite a significant stock pullback this year, Palantir's valuation remains astronomical at 128 times forward earnings, which may lead to declining investor confidence in its future growth prospects.
- Optimistic Outlook for Nvidia: Nvidia's forward earnings multiple stands at 24.5, and with the upcoming launch of the Rubin platform, which will support inference at up to 10 times lower costs, the company is expected to continue its growth trajectory and solidify its leadership in the AI chip market.
- AMD's Competitive Edge: Although AMD trades at nearly 32 times forward earnings, its Instinct MI400 chips match Nvidia's Vera Rubin in compute performance and memory bandwidth while offering 1.5 times the memory capacity and scale-out bandwidth, showcasing its potential as a credible challenger to Nvidia.
- Sustained Market Demand: Both Nvidia and AMD are poised to benefit from ongoing GPU demand, while Palantir's excellent product may not justify its high stock price, potentially hindering its ability to deliver market-beating returns.
- Stable Long-Term Returns: The Vanguard S&P 500 ETF tracks the S&P 500 Index, which has averaged a 10% annual return since 1957, indicating that a $200 monthly investment could grow to approximately $395,000 over 30 years, showcasing its potential for long-term wealth accumulation.
- Market Volatility Risk: While the ETF has historically achieved positive returns through every recession and bear market, its market-cap-weighted structure means that tech stocks now comprise over 34% of the fund, with significant holdings in Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft, potentially leading to increased short-term volatility.
- Tech Stock Dominance: The rapid growth of tech companies has led to their rising share in the ETF, with Nvidia alone accounting for nearly 8%, which, while boosting recent performance, also implies greater risk if the tech sector faces downturns.
- Caution for Investors: Although the S&P 500 ETF is likely to yield positive returns in the long run, its heavy reliance on tech stocks could introduce unexpected risks during market fluctuations, necessitating careful consideration of individual risk tolerance when investing.
- Market Position Solidified: TSMC's current market capitalization stands at $1.9 trillion, and as the world's largest semiconductor foundry with a 71% share of the global chip market, investors could see a 58% return if it secures membership in the $3 trillion club.
- Strong Financial Performance: In Q4, TSMC reported revenue of $33.7 billion, a 26% year-over-year increase, with earnings per share rising 35% to $3.14, while gross and operating margins improved to 59.9% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating enhanced profitability during expansion.
- Future Growth Expectations: Management forecasts first-quarter revenue of $35.2 billion, representing a 38% year-over-year growth, suggesting that the company will continue to thrive amid rising demand for high-end semiconductors.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: Annual sales of high-end semiconductors are projected to approach $1 trillion by 2026, positioning TSMC to benefit from this trend, with analysts predicting revenues of $193.9 billion and $232.8 billion in 2027 and 2028, respectively.
- Investment Risk Warning: Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warns that even a slight miscalculation in AI investment timing could lead to bankruptcy, particularly as rivals pour hundreds of billions into data centers, highlighting the intense market competition.
- Cautious Spending Strategy: Amodei emphasizes that while powerful AI models are expected to emerge within one to two years, the timeline for revenue realization remains uncertain, potentially taking one to five years, making early massive capital commitments highly risky.
- Massive Spending Plans: Anthropic plans to invest $50 billion in U.S. AI infrastructure, focusing on data centers in Texas and New York, while competitors like Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta are budgeting significantly more at $200 billion, $185 billion, and $135 billion respectively, indicating fierce funding competition in the industry.
- Surge in Market Demand: According to the Semiconductor Industry Association, global chip sales are projected to reach $791.7 billion in 2025 and grow by 26% in 2026, indicating that AI demand is driving rapid growth across the entire sector.










