Behind the Scenes: Understanding Private Equity's Operations and How to Replicate Their Success
Media Focus: The media is currently fixated on sensational stories involving the President, trade policies, and emerging technologies like AI, but these narratives often lack substantial financial value for investors.
Contrarian Investing Insight: David Dreman emphasizes that successful investing requires going against the crowd and exploiting market overreactions rather than relying on deep dives into widely available information.
Private Equity Reality: Daniel Rasmussen reveals that private equity's success stems from financial engineering—buying undervalued companies and leveraging debt—rather than exceptional management skills, suggesting similar strategies can be applied in public markets.
Investment Strategy: A proposed investment strategy focuses on small-cap companies with high debt-to-equity ratios that are actively reducing their debt, which has historically outperformed major indices by aligning insider incentives with debt repayment and stock price increases.
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- Revenue Growth: Commerce.com reported $342 million in revenue for 2025, reflecting a 3% year-over-year increase, indicating the company's resilience and potential for sustained growth despite macroeconomic challenges.
- ARR Performance: The company ended the year with $359 million in Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR), showcasing strong growth in its B2B segment, particularly with nearly 20% ARR growth from BigCommerce B2B Edition customers, laying a solid foundation for future revenue increases.
- Product Innovation: The launch of the Surface self-service version resulted in merchants using the product experiencing an average GMV growth of 24 percentage points higher than non-users, demonstrating the company's success in product innovation that attracts more customers and enhances market competitiveness.
- Future Outlook: The company anticipates Q1 2026 revenue between $82.5 million and $83.5 million, with full-year revenue expected between $347.5 million and $369.5 million, reflecting management's confidence in future growth, although improvements in net revenue retention are necessary to achieve GAAP profitability.
- Earnings Overview: Commerce.com, Inc. reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $0.07, meeting expectations, but its revenue of $89.5 million, which grew 2.9% year-over-year, fell short by $0.72 million, indicating pressure on revenue growth.
- Decline in Adjusted EBITDA: The adjusted EBITDA was $8.3 million, down from $11.0 million in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting challenges in cost control and profitability that could impact investor confidence moving forward.
- Annual Revenue Growth: As of December 31, 2025, the annual revenue run-rate was $359.1 million, up 3%, with ARR from enterprise accounts at $287.2 million, representing 80% of total ARR, highlighting the stability and significance of enterprise clients.
- Future Outlook: For Q1 2026, total revenue is expected to be between $82.5 million and $83.5 million, below the consensus of $86.02 million, suggesting potential risks of slowing growth in the near term.
- Earnings Announcement Schedule: Commerce.com, Inc. is set to release its Q4 earnings on February 12 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $0.07, reflecting a significant year-over-year decline of 36.4%, indicating potential profitability challenges.
- Revenue Expectations: The consensus revenue estimate stands at $90.22 million, representing a modest year-over-year growth of 3.7%, which, while limited, suggests some resilience in the company's market position and may lay the groundwork for future growth.
- Historical Performance: Over the past two years, Commerce.com has exceeded EPS estimates 100% of the time and revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a degree of reliability in financial performance that could bolster investor confidence.
- Market Focus: Despite the attention surrounding the earnings report, there is cautious sentiment regarding the company's AI business prospects, particularly in light of customer attrition, which may impact future growth potential.

- Earnings Release Schedule: Commerce.com will report its financial results for the quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, before market open on February 12, 2026, followed by a conference call to discuss business highlights and financial performance.
- Financial Outlook Reaffirmed: The company reaffirmed its financial outlook for the period, expecting significant improvements in non-GAAP operating income and cash flow, driven by ongoing revenue growth and recent operational and organizational changes.
- AI-Driven Efficiency Gains: By expanding the use of artificial intelligence and automation, Commerce.com aims to simplify operational complexity and management layers, with most benefits expected to materialize in fiscal year 2026 and full impact anticipated in fiscal year 2027.
- Executive Appointment: The company appointed CFO Daniel Lentz as COO to enhance operational execution and alignment, thereby improving overall business efficiency.







