AXT Updates Q4 2025 Revenue Guidance to $23.5 Million Amid Export Permit Challenges
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 08 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AXTI?
Source: Newsfilter
- Revenue Guidance Adjustment: AXT has updated its revenue expectations for Q4 2025 to a range of $22.5 to $23.5 million, primarily due to fewer export control permits for indium phosphide issued by China's Ministry of Commerce, which has hindered the fulfillment of customer orders.
- Strong Customer Demand: Despite the permit challenges, CEO Morris Young noted that customer demand for AXT's products remains robust, indicating that the company is in the early stages of a multi-year growth cycle driven by AI infrastructure and high-speed optical connectivity.
- Capacity Expansion Plans: AXT is on track to double its indium phosphide capacity in the second half of 2025, reflecting the company's proactive approach to anticipated multi-year trends in data center expansion and its commitment to meeting future market demands.
- Successful Capital Raise: The company successfully completed a capital raise in December, with plans to use part of the proceeds to increase manufacturing capacity, thereby reinforcing its competitive position in the global market as it prepares for upcoming growth opportunities.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Stop guessing "Should I Buy AXTI?" and start using high-conviction signals backed by rigorous historical data.
Sign up today to access powerful investing tools and make smarter, data-driven decisions.
Analyst Views on AXTI
Wall Street analysts forecast AXTI stock price to fall
5 Analyst Rating
4 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 24.790
Low
7.00
Averages
16.20
High
26.00
Current: 24.790
Low
7.00
Averages
16.20
High
26.00
About AXTI
AXT, Inc. is a material science company that develops and manufactures high-performance compound and single element semiconductor wafer substrates comprising indium phosphide (InP), gallium arsenide (GaAs) and germanium (Ge). Its wafer substrates are used when a typical silicon wafer substrate cannot meet the performance requirements of a semiconductor or optoelectronic device. It has two product lines: specialty material substrates and raw materials integral to these substrates. Its InP is a semiconductor wafer substrate used in broadband and fiber optic applications, 5G infrastructure and data center connectivity. Its semi-conducting GaAs substrates are used to create opto-electronic products, including high brightness light emitting diodes that are often used to backlight wireless handsets and LCD televisions and for automotive, signage, and lighting applications. Its Ge substrates are used in applications, such as solar cells for space and terrestrial photovoltaic applications.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Valaris Shares Surge 21.8% Amid Transocean Acquisition Deal
- Significant Price Surge: Valaris shares jumped 21.8% to $76.02 on Monday, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's upcoming acquisition by Transocean, indicating a positive investor sentiment towards the deal.
- Clear Transaction Terms: Under the terms of the all-stock transaction, Valaris shareholders will receive 15.235 shares of Transocean stock for each Valaris share, which may attract more investor interest in Valaris's future performance.
- Mixed Market Performance: U.S. stocks were mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq gaining around 100 points, showcasing strong performance in tech stocks amidst volatility in other sectors, reflecting the complexity of market sentiment.
- Investor Focus: The acquisition news surrounding Valaris has sparked widespread market attention, potentially influencing the stock prices of other related companies, prompting investors to closely monitor subsequent market reactions and industry developments.
See More
Maytree Asset Management Acquires 682,299 Shares in AXT
- Holding Update: According to a SEC filing dated February 3, 2026, Maytree Asset Management Ltd reported a new holding of 682,299 shares in AXT (AXTI) during Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $11.16 million, reflecting the firm's bullish outlook on AXT.
- Asset Allocation Shift: This acquisition positions AXT to account for 8.27% of Maytree's 13F reportable assets, highlighting its significance in the firm's portfolio, especially amid strong performance in tech stocks.
- Impressive Stock Performance: As of February 2, 2026, AXT's share price stood at $20.94, soaring 911.6% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 886.42 percentage points, indicating optimistic market expectations for its future growth.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Although AXT reported an operating loss of $1.1 million in Q3, an improvement from a $3.4 million loss the previous year, Maytree's purchase may be driven by anticipated growth in the AI market, despite the current price-to-sales ratio nearing multi-year highs, suggesting investors should proceed with caution.
See More
Maytree Acquires 682,299 Shares of AXT, Valued at $11.16 Million
- New Position Established: Maytree Asset Management acquired 682,299 shares of AXT in Q4 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $11.16 million, indicating a bullish outlook on AXT's future growth potential.
- Position Value Increase: The quarter-end value of this new position also stood at $11.16 million, reflecting both the impact of the purchase and price movements, which propelled AXT into Maytree's top five holdings, enhancing portfolio diversification.
- Outstanding Stock Performance: As of February 2, 2026, AXT shares were priced at $20.94, representing a staggering 911.6% increase year-over-year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 886.42 percentage points, showcasing strong market demand.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: AXT's semiconductor components have seen increased demand due to the booming AI market; although the company reported an operating loss of $1.1 million in Q3, this was an improvement from a $3.4 million loss the previous year, indicating potential in the AI sector.
See More
AXT Inc Shares Surpass Analyst Target Price of $18.12
- Price Target Breakthrough: AXT Inc's stock recently reached $18.54 per share, surpassing the analyst-set 12-month target price of $18.12, indicating a positive market sentiment that may prompt analysts to reassess their target prices.
- Analyst Target Variability: Within the Zacks coverage universe, AXT Inc's target prices show significant variability, with a low of $8.50 and a high of $26.00, resulting in a standard deviation of $7.261, reflecting differing expectations about the company's future performance.
- Investor Signal: The stock's rise above the average target price provides investors with a signal to reassess the company, prompting them to consider whether the current valuation is justified or if it might be time to take profits in light of potential market fluctuations.
- Analyst Rating Overview: AXT Inc's analyst ratings range from 1 to 5, with 1 being a strong buy and 5 a strong sell, offering investors a diverse perspective on the company's future performance, aiding them in making more informed investment decisions.
See More
Morgan Stanley Downgrades Domino's Pizza to Equal-Weight, Price Target Cut to $455
- Domino's Pizza Downgrade: Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour downgraded Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) from Overweight to Equal-Weight, lowering the price target from $535 to $455, reflecting caution about future growth, as shares closed at $400.28 on Friday, indicating market concerns about the company's outlook.
- AXT Inc Rating Change: Needham analyst Charles Shi downgraded AXT Inc (NASDAQ:AXTI) from Buy to Hold, reflecting diminished confidence in its market performance, with shares closing at $22.09 on Friday, signaling investor caution regarding its future prospects.
- Philip Morris Rating Adjustment: Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy downgraded Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) from Buy to Hold and cut the price target from $220 to $180, with shares closing at $173.62 on Friday, indicating market worries about its growth potential.
- ConocoPhillips Rating Maintained: JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram downgraded ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) from Overweight to Neutral while maintaining a price target of $98, with shares closing at $98.19 on Friday, reflecting cautious sentiment in the market regarding its future performance.
See More
Semiconductor Shares Rise 3.4%, Led by AXTI's 15.6% Gain
- Sector Performance: On Thursday, semiconductor shares collectively rose by approximately 3.4%, indicating strong market confidence in the sector, which may reflect investor optimism about future growth prospects.
- AXTI's Surge: AXTI's stock price increased by about 15.6%, making it the top performer of the day, suggesting its competitive strength in the market and investor confidence in its future earnings.
- Entegris Growth: Entegris saw its stock rise by approximately 11%, further solidifying its critical position in the semiconductor supply chain, potentially attracting more investor interest in its business developments.
- Market Trend Analysis: The robust performance of semiconductor stocks may signal a recovery in the tech sector, prompting investors to monitor the financial performance and market dynamics of related companies to seize potential investment opportunities.
See More
Valaris Shares Surge 21.8% Amid Transocean Acquisition Deal
- Significant Price Surge: Valaris shares jumped 21.8% to $76.02 on Monday, reflecting strong market confidence in the company's upcoming acquisition by Transocean, indicating a positive investor sentiment towards the deal.
- Clear Transaction Terms: Under the terms of the all-stock transaction, Valaris shareholders will receive 15.235 shares of Transocean stock for each Valaris share, which may attract more investor interest in Valaris's future performance.
- Mixed Market Performance: U.S. stocks were mixed on Monday, with the Nasdaq gaining around 100 points, showcasing strong performance in tech stocks amidst volatility in other sectors, reflecting the complexity of market sentiment.
- Investor Focus: The acquisition news surrounding Valaris has sparked widespread market attention, potentially influencing the stock prices of other related companies, prompting investors to closely monitor subsequent market reactions and industry developments.
See More
Maytree Asset Management Acquires 682,299 Shares in AXT
- Holding Update: According to a SEC filing dated February 3, 2026, Maytree Asset Management Ltd reported a new holding of 682,299 shares in AXT (AXTI) during Q4, with an estimated transaction value of $11.16 million, reflecting the firm's bullish outlook on AXT.
- Asset Allocation Shift: This acquisition positions AXT to account for 8.27% of Maytree's 13F reportable assets, highlighting its significance in the firm's portfolio, especially amid strong performance in tech stocks.
- Impressive Stock Performance: As of February 2, 2026, AXT's share price stood at $20.94, soaring 911.6% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 886.42 percentage points, indicating optimistic market expectations for its future growth.
- Market Outlook Analysis: Although AXT reported an operating loss of $1.1 million in Q3, an improvement from a $3.4 million loss the previous year, Maytree's purchase may be driven by anticipated growth in the AI market, despite the current price-to-sales ratio nearing multi-year highs, suggesting investors should proceed with caution.
See More
Maytree Acquires 682,299 Shares of AXT, Valued at $11.16 Million
- New Position Established: Maytree Asset Management acquired 682,299 shares of AXT in Q4 2026, with an estimated transaction value of $11.16 million, indicating a bullish outlook on AXT's future growth potential.
- Position Value Increase: The quarter-end value of this new position also stood at $11.16 million, reflecting both the impact of the purchase and price movements, which propelled AXT into Maytree's top five holdings, enhancing portfolio diversification.
- Outstanding Stock Performance: As of February 2, 2026, AXT shares were priced at $20.94, representing a staggering 911.6% increase year-over-year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 by 886.42 percentage points, showcasing strong market demand.
- Optimistic Industry Outlook: AXT's semiconductor components have seen increased demand due to the booming AI market; although the company reported an operating loss of $1.1 million in Q3, this was an improvement from a $3.4 million loss the previous year, indicating potential in the AI sector.
See More
AXT Inc Shares Surpass Analyst Target Price of $18.12
- Price Target Breakthrough: AXT Inc's stock recently reached $18.54 per share, surpassing the analyst-set 12-month target price of $18.12, indicating a positive market sentiment that may prompt analysts to reassess their target prices.
- Analyst Target Variability: Within the Zacks coverage universe, AXT Inc's target prices show significant variability, with a low of $8.50 and a high of $26.00, resulting in a standard deviation of $7.261, reflecting differing expectations about the company's future performance.
- Investor Signal: The stock's rise above the average target price provides investors with a signal to reassess the company, prompting them to consider whether the current valuation is justified or if it might be time to take profits in light of potential market fluctuations.
- Analyst Rating Overview: AXT Inc's analyst ratings range from 1 to 5, with 1 being a strong buy and 5 a strong sell, offering investors a diverse perspective on the company's future performance, aiding them in making more informed investment decisions.
See More
Morgan Stanley Downgrades Domino's Pizza to Equal-Weight, Price Target Cut to $455
- Domino's Pizza Downgrade: Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Harbour downgraded Domino's Pizza (NASDAQ:DPZ) from Overweight to Equal-Weight, lowering the price target from $535 to $455, reflecting caution about future growth, as shares closed at $400.28 on Friday, indicating market concerns about the company's outlook.
- AXT Inc Rating Change: Needham analyst Charles Shi downgraded AXT Inc (NASDAQ:AXTI) from Buy to Hold, reflecting diminished confidence in its market performance, with shares closing at $22.09 on Friday, signaling investor caution regarding its future prospects.
- Philip Morris Rating Adjustment: Jefferies analyst Edward Mundy downgraded Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM) from Buy to Hold and cut the price target from $220 to $180, with shares closing at $173.62 on Friday, indicating market worries about its growth potential.
- ConocoPhillips Rating Maintained: JP Morgan analyst Arun Jayaram downgraded ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) from Overweight to Neutral while maintaining a price target of $98, with shares closing at $98.19 on Friday, reflecting cautious sentiment in the market regarding its future performance.
See More
Semiconductor Shares Rise 3.4%, Led by AXTI's 15.6% Gain
- Sector Performance: On Thursday, semiconductor shares collectively rose by approximately 3.4%, indicating strong market confidence in the sector, which may reflect investor optimism about future growth prospects.
- AXTI's Surge: AXTI's stock price increased by about 15.6%, making it the top performer of the day, suggesting its competitive strength in the market and investor confidence in its future earnings.
- Entegris Growth: Entegris saw its stock rise by approximately 11%, further solidifying its critical position in the semiconductor supply chain, potentially attracting more investor interest in its business developments.
- Market Trend Analysis: The robust performance of semiconductor stocks may signal a recovery in the tech sector, prompting investors to monitor the financial performance and market dynamics of related companies to seize potential investment opportunities.
See More
