Analysts See AIG's Q4 As Positive, But Expense Ratio Limits Stock Gains
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 12 2025
0mins
Should l Buy AIG?
Source: Benzinga
AIG Fourth Quarter Performance: American International Group, Inc. reported a fourth quarter adjusted EPS of $1.30, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.23, although slightly below some analyst expectations due to higher expenses and weaker underwriting results.
Market Reaction and Analyst Insights: Despite a 1.49% decline in share price, analysts view AIG's results positively, highlighting stronger core and catastrophe loss ratios, with expectations for future gains tempered by a higher-than-expected expense ratio.
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Analyst Views on AIG
Wall Street analysts forecast AIG stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
12 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 78.800
Low
80.00
Averages
85.93
High
96.00
Current: 78.800
Low
80.00
Averages
85.93
High
96.00
About AIG
American International Group, Inc. is a global insurance company. It provides insurance solutions that help businesses and individuals in over 200 countries and jurisdictions protect their assets and manage risks through its operations, licenses and authorizations and network partners. Its segment includes General Insurance and Other Operations. General Insurance business includes its three segments, including North America Commercial, International Commercial and Global Personal. The North America Commercial consists of insurance businesses in the United States, Canada and Bermuda. The International Commercial consists of insurance businesses in Japan, the United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Asia Pacific, Latin America and Caribbean and China. The North America and International Commercial segment products include property and short tail, casualty, financial lines and global specialty. Global Personal segment products include global accident and health and personal lines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Software Selloff: After three consecutive days of gains, the iShares Tech-Expanded Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) fell over 3% on Wednesday, indicating a decline in market confidence towards the software sector, which could impact investor sentiment towards tech stocks overall.
- Strong Jobs Data but Severe Revisions: Although January's nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000, significantly exceeding economists' expectations of 70,000, the total U.S. job growth for 2025 was drastically revised down to just 181,000, highlighting the fragility of economic recovery and potentially raising concerns about future growth.
- Unexpected Drop in Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate fell from 4.4% to 4.3%, which appears positive on the surface; however, this contrasts sharply with the downward revisions in job growth, possibly leading investors to question the economic outlook.
- Robinhood's Poor Market Performance: Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:HOOD) saw its stock tumble 12% following a revenue miss and disappointing cryptocurrency trading results, reflecting market concerns about its future profitability and potentially undermining investor confidence.
See More
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- Significant Earnings Growth: AIG reported adjusted after-tax income per diluted share of $1.96 for Q4 2025, reflecting a 51% year-over-year increase, which underscores the company's strong profitability and is likely to bolster investor confidence moving forward.
- Underwriting Income Improvement: The company achieved underwriting income of $670 million, up 48% year-over-year, indicating ongoing enhancements in underwriting discipline and operational efficiency that contribute to overall financial health.
- Strategic Investment Initiatives: AIG announced the launch of SPV Syndicate 2479 in collaboration with Amwins and Blackstone, alongside an investment in Convex Group, with expectations that these transactions will positively impact earnings per share and shareholder returns in 2026, further solidifying market position.
- Leadership Transition: CEO Peter Zaffino announced his retirement to become Executive Chair of the Board, with Eric Andersen stepping in as CEO, marking a smooth leadership transition that is expected to maintain strategic direction consistency.
See More
AIG Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.45 per Share
- Quarterly Dividend Announcement: American International Group (AIG) declares a quarterly dividend of $0.45 per share, consistent with previous distributions, indicating the company's stable cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Dividend Yield: The forward yield of 2.4% reflects AIG's attractiveness in the current market environment, potentially appealing to investors seeking stable income.
- Payment Schedule: The dividend will be payable on March 30, with a record date of March 16 and an ex-dividend date also on March 16, ensuring shareholders receive timely returns and bolstering investor confidence.
- Market Reaction Expectations: AIG's dividend policy aligns with its overall financial performance; despite disappointing net premiums written in Q4, the stable dividend may alleviate market concerns regarding its profitability.
See More
AIG Q4 Earnings Exceed Expectations Despite Premium Miss
- Earnings Beat: AIG reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $1.96, exceeding Wall Street's consensus of $1.90 and up from $1.30 a year ago, indicating a significant improvement in profitability.
- Investment Income Growth: The total net investment income for Q4 reached $954 million, up from $872 million last year, reflecting successful investment management and enhancing overall financial stability.
- Insurance Premiums Under Pressure: Despite the General Insurance unit's underwriting income rising 48% to $670 million, net premiums written of $6.04 billion fell short of the Visible Alpha consensus of $6.09 billion, highlighting increased market competition.
- Strong Capital Returns: Adjusted pretax income climbed to $1.42 billion from $1.08 billion a year ago, with core operating return on equity rising from 9.1% to 11.7%, demonstrating effective capital management.
See More
AIG Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations with Strong Underwriting Income
- Earnings Performance: American International Group (AIG) reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $1.96, beating expectations by $0.06, indicating strong profitability that may boost investor confidence.
- Significant Insurance Growth: The company’s general insurance underwriting income reached $670 million, up 48% year-over-year, reflecting AIG's enhanced competitiveness in the insurance market, which could aid in future market share expansion.
- Stable Underwriting Ratios: AIG's general insurance combined ratio stood at 88.8%, with an adjusted accident year combined ratio (AYCR) of 88.9%, demonstrating effective risk management and cost control, which supports sustained profitability.
- Executive Transition Impact: AIG announced the retirement of CEO Peter Zaffino, leading to a short-term decline in stock price; however, this change may provide new strategic direction for the company, influencing future business development.
See More
AIG Reports Increased Adjusted Profit in Q4 Driven by Strong Underwriting Gains
- Surge in Underwriting Income: AIG's fourth-quarter underwriting income soared by 48% year-over-year to $670 million, indicating robust insurance spending amid rising macroeconomic uncertainties, which enhances the company's competitive position in the market.
- Increase in Net Investment Income: In the fourth quarter, AIG's adjusted net investment income rose by 9.4%, driven by buoyant markets following Federal Reserve rate cuts, further solidifying the company's financial foundation and profitability.
- Significant Drop in Catastrophe Charges: AIG reported catastrophe-related charges of $125 million in the fourth quarter, down from $325 million a year earlier, providing additional support to the company's financial performance and reducing potential risk exposure.
- Outstanding 2025 Performance: AIG achieved nearly 18% stock price growth in 2025, outperforming the Dow Jones U.S. Select Insurance Index, with the CEO highlighting significant progress in strategic execution that lays a solid foundation for future growth.
See More
