Analysis of Stock Market Performance During Trump's Presidency
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy SPGI?
Source: Fool
- Strong Market Performance: During Trump's first term, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively, indicating robust market reactions and reflecting investor confidence in his policies.
- Bull Market in Second Term: From January 20, 2025, to February 10, 2026, the three major indexes rose by 15%, 16%, and 18%, suggesting that Trump's policies continue to drive market growth despite potential economic headwinds.
- Impact of Tax Policy: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, facilitating significant stock buybacks, with S&P 500 companies projected to exceed $1 trillion in buybacks by 2025, enhancing earnings per share and attracting value-focused investors.
- Valuation Risks Emerge: As of February 10, 2026, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 40.36, the second-highest in history, trailing only the dot-com bubble, indicating overvaluation that could lead to a potential 20% to 89% decline, suggesting significant challenges ahead for the bull market.
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Analyst Views on SPGI
Wall Street analysts forecast SPGI stock price to rise
15 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 397.200
Low
546.00
Averages
617.77
High
675.00
Current: 397.200
Low
546.00
Averages
617.77
High
675.00
About SPGI
S&P Global Inc. provides essential intelligence. Its operations consist of five businesses: S&P Global Market Intelligence (Market Intelligence), S&P Global Ratings (Ratings), S&P Global Commodity Insights (Commodity Insights), S&P Global Mobility (Mobility) and S&P Dow Jones Indices (Indices). Market Intelligence is a global provider of multi-asset-class data and analytics integrated with purpose-built workflow solutions. Ratings is an independent provider of credit ratings, research, and analytics, offering investors and other market participants information, ratings and benchmarks. Commodity Insights is an independent provider of information and benchmark prices for the commodity and energy markets. Mobility is a provider of solutions serving the full automotive value chain, including vehicle manufacturers and retailers. Indices is a global index provider that maintains a variety of valuation and index benchmarks for investment advisors, wealth managers and institutional investors.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Analysis of Stock Market Performance During Trump's Presidency
- Strong Market Performance: During Trump's first term, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively, indicating robust market reactions and reflecting investor confidence in his policies.
- Bull Market in Second Term: From January 20, 2025, to February 10, 2026, the three major indexes rose by 15%, 16%, and 18%, suggesting that Trump's policies continue to drive market growth despite potential economic headwinds.
- Impact of Tax Policy: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, facilitating significant stock buybacks, with S&P 500 companies projected to exceed $1 trillion in buybacks by 2025, enhancing earnings per share and attracting value-focused investors.
- Valuation Risks Emerge: As of February 10, 2026, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 40.36, the second-highest in history, trailing only the dot-com bubble, indicating overvaluation that could lead to a potential 20% to 89% decline, suggesting significant challenges ahead for the bull market.
See More
Analysis of Stock Market Performance Under Trump Administration
- Strong Market Performance: Under Trump's administration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite surged by 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively, reflecting robust market confidence and investor optimism during his tenure.
- Tax Policy Impact: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed by Trump in December 2017 reduced the peak marginal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which has spurred corporate investment and hiring, leading to a historic level of share buybacks, with S&P 500 companies projected to exceed $1 trillion in buybacks by 2025.
- Valuation Warning: As of February 10, 2026, the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 reached 40.36, marking the second-highest level in history; historical data indicates that such high valuations often precede significant market corrections, prompting caution among investors.
- Technological Innovation Boost: The rise of artificial intelligence and quantum computing is providing new growth catalysts for the market, with analysts estimating that AI could add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, highlighting the positive impact of technological advancements on stock performance.
See More
Goldman Sachs Identifies Compelling Stocks Amid Market Volatility
- Teva's Positive Outlook: Goldman Sachs analysts assert that despite Teva's stock doubling over the past year, its current valuation remains attractive, and the company is on a rapidly ascending earnings trajectory, urging investors to remain calm and accumulate shares.
- Philip Morris's Successful Transformation: Goldman highlights that Philip Morris is transforming into a faster-growing and more profitable business, with shares up nearly 18% year-to-date, indicating significant upside potential as it delivers strong earnings growth.
- S&P Global's Strong Positioning: Although S&P Global's stock has declined 22% this year, analysts believe its strong AI positioning and durable long-term earnings power will drive organic revenue growth, with a revised price target lowered from $555 to $498.
- Nvidia's Market Focus: Goldman expects Nvidia to report strong results in its upcoming earnings, with investors keenly watching for insights into 2027 visibility and competitive dynamics, despite high expectations for outperformance.
See More
S&P Global Named Ratings Provider of the Year
- Industry Recognition: S&P Global was awarded Ratings Provider of the Year at the 2026 Private Equity Wire European Awards, highlighting its contributions to enhancing transparency and decision-making in European private markets, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.
- Market Demand: As private equity and private credit markets grow increasingly complex, S&P Global's independent credit analysis has become crucial, assisting market participants in making informed decisions in a volatile environment, which further solidifies its market influence.
- High-Quality Analysis: S&P Global's credit analysts deliver high-quality independent credit opinions, including credit ratings and assessments of asset-based lending, ensuring that market participants can make investment decisions with confidence, thus promoting healthy market development.
- Enhanced Transparency: By providing clear credit ratings and research, S&P Global not only helps businesses and governments identify opportunities but also fosters growth across various organizations, underscoring its vital role in the global capital markets.
See More
S&P Global Ratings Named Ratings Provider of the Year
- Industry Recognition: S&P Global Ratings was awarded Ratings Provider of the Year at the 2026 Private Equity Wire European Awards, highlighting its crucial role in enhancing transparency and decision-making in European private markets.
- Market Demand: As private equity and private credit markets grow increasingly complex, S&P Global's independent credit analysis has become essential, enabling market participants to make informed decisions in a dynamic environment.
- Expertise: S&P Global's credit analysts deliver high-quality ratings and independent opinions, ensuring investors can confidently navigate complex assets, thereby fostering healthy market development.
- Continuous Innovation: S&P Global is committed to leveraging its analyst-driven credit ratings and research to help various organizations identify opportunities and strategize in the global economic landscape, further solidifying its leadership in the credit rating industry.
See More
AI Trade Sentiment Reverses, Four Major Industries Hit Hard
- Software Sector Hit: The iShares Tech-Expanded Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) has plummeted nearly 20% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing industry, as fears mount that AI tools could disintermediate traditional software providers, causing forward P/E ratios for application software to drop from 35.3 to 23.7 and systems software from 35.5 to 23.3, reflecting market concerns over future earnings durability.
- Brokerage Pressure: Investment banks and brokerage firms are under pressure following the rollout of AI tools by fintech firm Altruist, with forward P/E ratios declining from 24.7 to 15.9, as the market fears that AI could replace traditional advisors in the future, leading to long-term margin compression.
- Insurance Broker Anxiety: Insurance brokers are facing disruption due to the integration of AI-driven tools, with the S&P Insurance Brokers industry index down 4% year-to-date; while the insurance sector remains relationship-driven, there are concerns that AI could erode commissions, impacting brokers' income stability.
- Asset Management Damage: Alternative asset managers are indirectly affected by significant exposure to private software companies, with many large firms down double digits year-to-date, as declining public software valuations raise concerns about their private portfolios, shrinking exit opportunities.
See More
Analysis of Stock Market Performance During Trump's Presidency
- Strong Market Performance: During Trump's first term, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq gained 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively, indicating robust market reactions and reflecting investor confidence in his policies.
- Bull Market in Second Term: From January 20, 2025, to February 10, 2026, the three major indexes rose by 15%, 16%, and 18%, suggesting that Trump's policies continue to drive market growth despite potential economic headwinds.
- Impact of Tax Policy: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 reduced the corporate income tax rate from 35% to 21%, facilitating significant stock buybacks, with S&P 500 companies projected to exceed $1 trillion in buybacks by 2025, enhancing earnings per share and attracting value-focused investors.
- Valuation Risks Emerge: As of February 10, 2026, the S&P 500's Shiller P/E ratio hit 40.36, the second-highest in history, trailing only the dot-com bubble, indicating overvaluation that could lead to a potential 20% to 89% decline, suggesting significant challenges ahead for the bull market.
See More
Analysis of Stock Market Performance Under Trump Administration
- Strong Market Performance: Under Trump's administration, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite surged by 57%, 70%, and 142% respectively, reflecting robust market confidence and investor optimism during his tenure.
- Tax Policy Impact: The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act signed by Trump in December 2017 reduced the peak marginal corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, which has spurred corporate investment and hiring, leading to a historic level of share buybacks, with S&P 500 companies projected to exceed $1 trillion in buybacks by 2025.
- Valuation Warning: As of February 10, 2026, the Shiller P/E ratio for the S&P 500 reached 40.36, marking the second-highest level in history; historical data indicates that such high valuations often precede significant market corrections, prompting caution among investors.
- Technological Innovation Boost: The rise of artificial intelligence and quantum computing is providing new growth catalysts for the market, with analysts estimating that AI could add $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030, highlighting the positive impact of technological advancements on stock performance.
See More
Goldman Sachs Identifies Compelling Stocks Amid Market Volatility
- Teva's Positive Outlook: Goldman Sachs analysts assert that despite Teva's stock doubling over the past year, its current valuation remains attractive, and the company is on a rapidly ascending earnings trajectory, urging investors to remain calm and accumulate shares.
- Philip Morris's Successful Transformation: Goldman highlights that Philip Morris is transforming into a faster-growing and more profitable business, with shares up nearly 18% year-to-date, indicating significant upside potential as it delivers strong earnings growth.
- S&P Global's Strong Positioning: Although S&P Global's stock has declined 22% this year, analysts believe its strong AI positioning and durable long-term earnings power will drive organic revenue growth, with a revised price target lowered from $555 to $498.
- Nvidia's Market Focus: Goldman expects Nvidia to report strong results in its upcoming earnings, with investors keenly watching for insights into 2027 visibility and competitive dynamics, despite high expectations for outperformance.
See More
S&P Global Named Ratings Provider of the Year
- Industry Recognition: S&P Global was awarded Ratings Provider of the Year at the 2026 Private Equity Wire European Awards, highlighting its contributions to enhancing transparency and decision-making in European private markets, thereby reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.
- Market Demand: As private equity and private credit markets grow increasingly complex, S&P Global's independent credit analysis has become crucial, assisting market participants in making informed decisions in a volatile environment, which further solidifies its market influence.
- High-Quality Analysis: S&P Global's credit analysts deliver high-quality independent credit opinions, including credit ratings and assessments of asset-based lending, ensuring that market participants can make investment decisions with confidence, thus promoting healthy market development.
- Enhanced Transparency: By providing clear credit ratings and research, S&P Global not only helps businesses and governments identify opportunities but also fosters growth across various organizations, underscoring its vital role in the global capital markets.
See More
S&P Global Ratings Named Ratings Provider of the Year
- Industry Recognition: S&P Global Ratings was awarded Ratings Provider of the Year at the 2026 Private Equity Wire European Awards, highlighting its crucial role in enhancing transparency and decision-making in European private markets.
- Market Demand: As private equity and private credit markets grow increasingly complex, S&P Global's independent credit analysis has become essential, enabling market participants to make informed decisions in a dynamic environment.
- Expertise: S&P Global's credit analysts deliver high-quality ratings and independent opinions, ensuring investors can confidently navigate complex assets, thereby fostering healthy market development.
- Continuous Innovation: S&P Global is committed to leveraging its analyst-driven credit ratings and research to help various organizations identify opportunities and strategize in the global economic landscape, further solidifying its leadership in the credit rating industry.
See More
AI Trade Sentiment Reverses, Four Major Industries Hit Hard
- Software Sector Hit: The iShares Tech-Expanded Software Sector ETF (NYSE:IGV) has plummeted nearly 20% year-to-date, making it the worst-performing industry, as fears mount that AI tools could disintermediate traditional software providers, causing forward P/E ratios for application software to drop from 35.3 to 23.7 and systems software from 35.5 to 23.3, reflecting market concerns over future earnings durability.
- Brokerage Pressure: Investment banks and brokerage firms are under pressure following the rollout of AI tools by fintech firm Altruist, with forward P/E ratios declining from 24.7 to 15.9, as the market fears that AI could replace traditional advisors in the future, leading to long-term margin compression.
- Insurance Broker Anxiety: Insurance brokers are facing disruption due to the integration of AI-driven tools, with the S&P Insurance Brokers industry index down 4% year-to-date; while the insurance sector remains relationship-driven, there are concerns that AI could erode commissions, impacting brokers' income stability.
- Asset Management Damage: Alternative asset managers are indirectly affected by significant exposure to private software companies, with many large firms down double digits year-to-date, as declining public software valuations raise concerns about their private portfolios, shrinking exit opportunities.
See More
