AI Risks Weigh on Alternative Asset Managers, Goldman Sachs Reports
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 05 2026
0mins
Source: seekingalpha
- Market Performance Decline: Over the past month, the VanEck Alternative Asset Manager ETF (GPZ) has dropped 14%, while the S&P 500 only fell 0.8%, indicating that investor concerns about software risks are intensifying, leading to a significant underperformance of the alternative asset management sector compared to the broader market.
- Software Exposure Analysis: Goldman Sachs analysts noted that despite limited data, the software exposure at the enterprise level for alternative asset managers is relatively small, with private equity software accounting for about 5% of total management fees, suggesting that overall risk may be lower than market expectations.
- Significant Company Variance: TPG and KKR have relatively higher software contributions in private equity management fees, each in the high single-digit percentage range, while Blue Owl and Ares Management have 13% and 8% in private credit, respectively, highlighting the variance in risk exposure across different firms.
- Identification of Low-Risk Firms: Goldman estimates that Carlyle Group, Apollo Global Management, and Brookfield Asset Management have the least exposure to software investments, potentially making them more resilient in the current market environment and better positioned to navigate potential market volatility.
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Analyst Views on TPG
Wall Street analysts forecast TPG stock price to rise
10 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 48.740
Low
55.00
Averages
70.10
High
82.00
Current: 48.740
Low
55.00
Averages
70.10
High
82.00
About TPG
TPG Inc. is an alternative asset management company. The Company invests in a diversified set of strategies, including private equity, impact, credit, real estate, and market solutions. It consists of multi-strategy investment platforms: Capital, Growth, Impact, TPG Angelo Gordon, Real Estate, and Market Solutions. Its Capital platform focuses on control-oriented private equity investments. Its Capital platform products include TPG Capital, and TPG Healthcare Partners. Its Growth platform products include TPG Growth and TPG Digital Media. Its Impact platform products include The Rise Funds and TPG NEXT. Its TPG Angelo Gordon platform products include TPG AG Credit Solutions and TPG AG Net Lease. Its Real Estate platform products include TPG Real Estate Partners and Real Estate Credit. Its Market Solutions products include Public Market Investing and Capital Markets. Its TPG Peppertree focuses on wireless communications towers and related critical communications assets.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TPG Inc. Dividend and Options Analysis
- Dividend Expectation Analysis: TPG Inc.'s latest dividend expectation stands at an annualized yield of 4.5%, based on historical profitability fluctuations, indicating potential sustainability that impacts investor return expectations.
- Trading History Review: TPG's trailing twelve-month trading history shows a current stock price of $54.87, and with a strike price of $62.50, investors must assess the risk-reward of selling covered calls, especially with a volatility of 43%.
- Options Market Dynamics: On Monday, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.19 million contracts, while call volume was at 2.27 million, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.52, indicating a preference for calls that may reflect investor optimism about TPG's future performance.
- Options Trading Strategy: Given the current options market dynamics, investors can analyze various expiration dates for options contracts to identify optimal trading opportunities, thereby enhancing the risk-reward profile of their investment portfolios.
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- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
See More
Asset Managers Face AI-Driven Shock Amid Software Selloff
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
TPG Acquires Majority Stake in Sabre Industries from Blackstone
- Transaction Size: TPG has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Sabre Industries for approximately $3.5 billion, valuing the company at this figure and highlighting strong interest in private markets for power infrastructure.
- Investment Return: The purchase price represents a fourfold increase on Blackstone's initial investment when it acquired Sabre in 2021, indicating significant growth potential in the power and communications infrastructure sector.
- Market Trends: The surge in demand for data centers driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing places Sabre, a manufacturer of power infrastructure components, in a rapidly growing market that has attracted substantial private capital.
- Strategic Significance: Blackstone will retain a significant minority stake in Sabre, reflecting ongoing confidence in the power infrastructure market and leveraging an investment strategy focused on
See More
TPG Acquires Majority Stake in Sabre Industries
- Acquisition Overview: TPG has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Sabre Industries through its TPG Rise Climate investing platform, which focuses on designing and manufacturing infrastructure for power and telecom companies and data centers, with the deal expected to close by Q2 2026.
- Strategic Investment Belief: TPG believes that investing in infrastructure companies that meet rising electricity demand and modernize the power grid will yield significant returns, as noted by TPG Partner Steven Mandel, emphasizing Sabre's leadership in transmission and distribution as central to these essential trends.
- Company Scale and Strength: Sabre employs approximately 2,800 people and boasts over 2.3 million square feet of purpose-built domestic manufacturing space, showcasing its robust production capacity and market position within the industry.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement of the deal, TPG's stock rose by 1.2%, while Blackstone's stock increased by 0.6%, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the transaction and recognition of future growth potential.
See More
TPG Inc. Dividend and Options Analysis
- Dividend Expectation Analysis: TPG Inc.'s latest dividend expectation stands at an annualized yield of 4.5%, based on historical profitability fluctuations, indicating potential sustainability that impacts investor return expectations.
- Trading History Review: TPG's trailing twelve-month trading history shows a current stock price of $54.87, and with a strike price of $62.50, investors must assess the risk-reward of selling covered calls, especially with a volatility of 43%.
- Options Market Dynamics: On Monday, the put volume among S&P 500 components reached 1.19 million contracts, while call volume was at 2.27 million, resulting in a put-call ratio of 0.52, indicating a preference for calls that may reflect investor optimism about TPG's future performance.
- Options Trading Strategy: Given the current options market dynamics, investors can analyze various expiration dates for options contracts to identify optimal trading opportunities, thereby enhancing the risk-reward profile of their investment portfolios.
See More
Major Wall Street Rating Updates on Monday
- Robinhood Upgrade: Wolfe upgraded Robinhood from Peer Perform to Outperform to capitalize on the recent selloff due to deteriorating sentiment in the crypto ecosystem, indicating that investors should seize the buying opportunity.
- Bullish on TeraWulf and Cipher Mining: Morgan Stanley initiated coverage on TeraWulf and Cipher Mining with an Overweight rating, citing significant upside potential from attractive valuations in the bitcoin mining sector.
- Timken's New CEO Drives Growth: KeyBanc upgraded Timken from Sector Weight to Overweight with a $130 price target, primarily based on expectations that new CEO Lucian Boldea will enhance organic growth initiatives and improve margins.
- Align Technologies Brand Strength: HSBC upgraded Align Technologies from Hold to Buy, emphasizing that its strong brand presence and R&D culture are key long-term growth drivers in the orthodontics market.
See More
Private Credit Markets Face AI Disruption Risks
- Increased Pressure on Software Sector: The introduction of new AI tools by Anthropic has triggered a sell-off in software data provider shares, intensifying uncertainty in the private credit market, particularly regarding lending risks to software companies.
- Decline in Asset Management Stocks: Ares Management fell over 12%, Blue Owl Capital dropped more than 8%, and KKR and TPG saw declines of nearly 10% and 7%, respectively, reflecting investor concerns about AI's potential impact on cash flows and default risks.
- Rising Default Risks: UBS Group has warned that in an aggressive disruption scenario, default rates in U.S. private credit could rise to 13%, significantly higher than the projected stress for leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, estimated at 8% and 4%, respectively.
- Liquidity Issues Intensified: Although strains in private credit predate AI concerns, Jeffrey C. Hooke noted that existing liquidity and loan extension issues have been exacerbated by recent developments, adding new challenges to an already pressured sector.
See More
Asset Managers Face AI-Driven Shock Amid Software Selloff
- Market Capitalization Loss: The software sector's selloff has wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market capitalization, leading the Dow Jones US Asset Managers Index to decline nearly 5% this week, reflecting investor concerns over loan and leverage exposure.
- Declining Private Equity Deal Volumes: Morgan Stanley noted that technology services deal volumes account for nearly 21% of overall private equity activity, with TPG, Carlyle, and KKR slightly above this level, indicating weakened market confidence in software-related investments.
- Rising Loan Risks: Software borrowers are shouldering an average debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 7.4 times, significantly higher than the 5.9 times average across a $1 trillion loan pool studied by KBRA, highlighting the private credit market's heavy reliance on the software sector and its associated risks.
- Portfolio Review: Companies like Ares and KKR are reviewing their portfolios to assess the impact of AI on their software investments, demonstrating a cautious approach among asset managers in the face of market volatility.
See More
TPG Acquires Majority Stake in Sabre Industries from Blackstone
- Transaction Size: TPG has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Sabre Industries for approximately $3.5 billion, valuing the company at this figure and highlighting strong interest in private markets for power infrastructure.
- Investment Return: The purchase price represents a fourfold increase on Blackstone's initial investment when it acquired Sabre in 2021, indicating significant growth potential in the power and communications infrastructure sector.
- Market Trends: The surge in demand for data centers driven by artificial intelligence and cloud computing places Sabre, a manufacturer of power infrastructure components, in a rapidly growing market that has attracted substantial private capital.
- Strategic Significance: Blackstone will retain a significant minority stake in Sabre, reflecting ongoing confidence in the power infrastructure market and leveraging an investment strategy focused on
See More
TPG Acquires Majority Stake in Sabre Industries
- Acquisition Overview: TPG has agreed to acquire a majority stake in Sabre Industries through its TPG Rise Climate investing platform, which focuses on designing and manufacturing infrastructure for power and telecom companies and data centers, with the deal expected to close by Q2 2026.
- Strategic Investment Belief: TPG believes that investing in infrastructure companies that meet rising electricity demand and modernize the power grid will yield significant returns, as noted by TPG Partner Steven Mandel, emphasizing Sabre's leadership in transmission and distribution as central to these essential trends.
- Company Scale and Strength: Sabre employs approximately 2,800 people and boasts over 2.3 million square feet of purpose-built domestic manufacturing space, showcasing its robust production capacity and market position within the industry.
- Market Reaction: Following the announcement of the deal, TPG's stock rose by 1.2%, while Blackstone's stock increased by 0.6%, reflecting positive market sentiment regarding the transaction and recognition of future growth potential.
See More
