Abivax Expected to Be Acquired with Valuation Up to €23 Billion
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 09 2026
0mins
Should l Buy ABVX?
Source: CNBC
- Stock Surge: Abivax's shares skyrocketed by 1,681% last year, significantly outperforming the Stoxx 600 index's 453% increase, indicating strong performance in the biotech sector and attracting acquisition interest from major pharmaceutical companies.
- Potential Acquisition: Analysts anticipate that Abivax may announce a deal at the upcoming JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, given its leading asset in the inflammatory bowel disease space, which could attract interest from companies like Eli Lilly.
- Market Outlook: Abivax's obefazimod is considered a potential best-in-class treatment, with plans to file for U.S. regulatory approval by 2026 and a potential launch in Q3 2027, further enhancing its attractiveness.
- Transaction Valuation: Analysts estimate Abivax's valuation to range between €12 billion and €20 billion, reflecting its strategic significance in the biopharmaceutical market, especially against the backdrop of an impending patent cliff.
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Analyst Views on ABVX
Wall Street analysts forecast ABVX stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 124.540
Low
131.00
Averages
150.71
High
175.00
Current: 124.540
Low
131.00
Averages
150.71
High
175.00
About ABVX
Abivax SA is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focusing on the discovery, development and commercialization of anti-viral compounds and therapeutic vaccines against severe and life threatening infectious diseases. ABIVAX utilizes RNA-protein interaction interference and cytotoxic TH1 cell amplification to generate therapies to help patients clear viruses like HIV, HBV and HPV. The Company's product pipeline comprises ABX 203, which is the therapeutic vaccine candidate obtained from the Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology, Cuba (CIGB) and is intended for patients with chronic hepatitis B disease; and ABX196, the adjuvant for therapeutic vaccines, among others.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Eli Lilly's Decade of Market Dominance
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly has reached a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, establishing itself as the largest healthcare stock globally, showcasing significant breakthroughs in its core therapeutic areas, and despite concerns about the timing for investment, it remains a buy.
- Viking Therapeutics Potential: Viking Therapeutics is developing VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist currently in phase 3 trials with results expected next year, and its strong phase 2 results indicate potential for market differentiation.
- Abivax's Innovative Treatment: Abivax's candidate obefazimod targets ulcerative colitis and other autoimmune conditions with a unique mechanism that may provide strong efficacy without suppressing immune function, potentially generating over $1 billion in annual sales if sustained efficacy is demonstrated.
- High Risk, High Reward: Both Viking Therapeutics and Abivax present promising market opportunities; however, they are also subject to clinical trial risks that could significantly impact their stock prices, necessitating careful risk-reward assessment by investors.
See More
Eli Lilly Sets High Bar, Competitors Follow Suit
- Eli Lilly's Market Performance: Eli Lilly has excelled over the past decade, reaching a market cap that once exceeded $1 trillion, making it the largest healthcare stock globally, showcasing breakthroughs in its core therapeutic areas; while some may think it's too late to invest, it remains a buy opportunity.
- Potential of Viking Therapeutics: Viking Therapeutics is developing VK2735 as an effective weight loss drug, with strong phase 2 results and a phase 3 study underway, expected to yield results next year, which could significantly enhance its competitive position in the market.
- Abivax's Innovative Treatment: Abivax's candidate obefazimod targets ulcerative colitis and is set to announce maintenance study results in the second quarter; if it demonstrates sustained efficacy, it could lead to a substantial stock price increase and has the potential to generate over $1 billion in annual sales.
- High Risk, High Reward: Both Viking Therapeutics and Abivax present potential high returns, but clinical trial setbacks could severely impact their stock prices, necessitating careful risk-reward assessments by investors.
See More
Investment Comparison: AbbVie vs. Abivax
- AbbVie's Market Position: As one of the largest pharmaceutical companies globally, AbbVie boasts a strong presence in immunology with drugs like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq, which ranked fifth and fifteenth in global sales in the first half of 2025, demonstrating its robust competitive edge and stable revenue streams.
- Innovation and Growth Potential: AbbVie has a deep pipeline expected to yield new products, maintaining its competitive stance, while its status as a Dividend King, having increased payouts for over 50 years, makes it an attractive income stock for risk-averse investors.
- Abivax's Disruptive Potential: Abivax's candidate obefazimod shows promising efficacy in phase 3 trials for ulcerative colitis, potentially disrupting the market, although it currently generates no revenue and faces significant risks.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: While investing in Abivax carries higher risks, successful market entry of obefazimod could yield substantial returns for investors, with the possibility of acquisition this year further enhancing its market value.
See More
Market Competition Analysis: AbbVie vs. Abivax
- AbbVie's Market Position: As one of the largest pharmaceutical companies globally, AbbVie has established itself in immunology with products like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq; despite Humira losing patent exclusivity, Skyrizi and Rinvoq ranked fifth and fifteenth in global sales in the first half of 2025, ensuring consistent revenue and earnings for the company.
- Abivax's Potential: Abivax, a clinical-stage biotech firm, currently generates no revenue and is unprofitable, yet its candidate drug obefazimod shows promising clinical data for ulcerative colitis treatment, potentially disrupting the market.
- Investment Risks and Rewards: Investors choosing AbbVie can benefit from stable dividend income, being a
See More
Eli Lilly Denies Acquisition Talks with Abivax, CEO Reaffirms No Negotiations
- Acquisition Rumor Denial: Abivax CEO Marc de Garidel emphasized that no acquisition discussions with Eli Lilly took place, asserting that such conversations would be illegal, demonstrating the company's firm stance against external distractions.
- Stock Price Surge Context: Abivax's shares have skyrocketed over 1,700% in the past 12 months, primarily driven by acquisition rumors and promising clinical trial data for its lead asset, obefazimod, against ulcerative colitis, reflecting strong market interest in its future potential.
- Government Engagement Requirement: De Garidel pointed out that any foreign acquisition must first involve public transaction communication with the French government, which has not occurred, further confirming the falsehood of the acquisition rumors.
- Focus on Core Business: Despite the acquisition rumors generating market attention, De Garidel stressed that the company will concentrate on its core operations, avoiding distractions from external noise to ensure continued progress in its R&D and market strategies.
See More
Abivax (ABVX) Acquisition Potential Could Boost Shares by 72%
- Drug Development Progress: Abivax's leading drug candidate, obefazimod, has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials, with 47.3% of patients having inadequate responses to prior therapies, indicating its potential to outperform existing drugs in the ulcerative colitis market.
- Market Valuation Surge: Currently valued at €8.74 billion (approximately $10.15 billion), Abivax is reportedly targeted for a €15 billion ($17.42 billion) acquisition by Eli Lilly, representing a 72% premium, highlighting its attractiveness in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Competitive Advantage Emergence: The unique mechanism of obefazimod allows it to control ulcerative colitis symptoms without compromising the immune system, potentially attracting a broader patient population and enhancing Abivax's market competitiveness.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: While the prospects for obefazimod are promising, potential clinical or regulatory setbacks could impact stock prices, necessitating careful consideration of acquisition possibilities and their effects on share value.
See More
Eli Lilly's Decade of Market Dominance
- Market Leadership: Eli Lilly has reached a market cap exceeding $1 trillion, establishing itself as the largest healthcare stock globally, showcasing significant breakthroughs in its core therapeutic areas, and despite concerns about the timing for investment, it remains a buy.
- Viking Therapeutics Potential: Viking Therapeutics is developing VK2735, a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist currently in phase 3 trials with results expected next year, and its strong phase 2 results indicate potential for market differentiation.
- Abivax's Innovative Treatment: Abivax's candidate obefazimod targets ulcerative colitis and other autoimmune conditions with a unique mechanism that may provide strong efficacy without suppressing immune function, potentially generating over $1 billion in annual sales if sustained efficacy is demonstrated.
- High Risk, High Reward: Both Viking Therapeutics and Abivax present promising market opportunities; however, they are also subject to clinical trial risks that could significantly impact their stock prices, necessitating careful risk-reward assessment by investors.
See More
Eli Lilly Sets High Bar, Competitors Follow Suit
- Eli Lilly's Market Performance: Eli Lilly has excelled over the past decade, reaching a market cap that once exceeded $1 trillion, making it the largest healthcare stock globally, showcasing breakthroughs in its core therapeutic areas; while some may think it's too late to invest, it remains a buy opportunity.
- Potential of Viking Therapeutics: Viking Therapeutics is developing VK2735 as an effective weight loss drug, with strong phase 2 results and a phase 3 study underway, expected to yield results next year, which could significantly enhance its competitive position in the market.
- Abivax's Innovative Treatment: Abivax's candidate obefazimod targets ulcerative colitis and is set to announce maintenance study results in the second quarter; if it demonstrates sustained efficacy, it could lead to a substantial stock price increase and has the potential to generate over $1 billion in annual sales.
- High Risk, High Reward: Both Viking Therapeutics and Abivax present potential high returns, but clinical trial setbacks could severely impact their stock prices, necessitating careful risk-reward assessments by investors.
See More
Investment Comparison: AbbVie vs. Abivax
- AbbVie's Market Position: As one of the largest pharmaceutical companies globally, AbbVie boasts a strong presence in immunology with drugs like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq, which ranked fifth and fifteenth in global sales in the first half of 2025, demonstrating its robust competitive edge and stable revenue streams.
- Innovation and Growth Potential: AbbVie has a deep pipeline expected to yield new products, maintaining its competitive stance, while its status as a Dividend King, having increased payouts for over 50 years, makes it an attractive income stock for risk-averse investors.
- Abivax's Disruptive Potential: Abivax's candidate obefazimod shows promising efficacy in phase 3 trials for ulcerative colitis, potentially disrupting the market, although it currently generates no revenue and faces significant risks.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: While investing in Abivax carries higher risks, successful market entry of obefazimod could yield substantial returns for investors, with the possibility of acquisition this year further enhancing its market value.
See More
Market Competition Analysis: AbbVie vs. Abivax
- AbbVie's Market Position: As one of the largest pharmaceutical companies globally, AbbVie has established itself in immunology with products like Humira, Skyrizi, and Rinvoq; despite Humira losing patent exclusivity, Skyrizi and Rinvoq ranked fifth and fifteenth in global sales in the first half of 2025, ensuring consistent revenue and earnings for the company.
- Abivax's Potential: Abivax, a clinical-stage biotech firm, currently generates no revenue and is unprofitable, yet its candidate drug obefazimod shows promising clinical data for ulcerative colitis treatment, potentially disrupting the market.
- Investment Risks and Rewards: Investors choosing AbbVie can benefit from stable dividend income, being a
See More
Eli Lilly Denies Acquisition Talks with Abivax, CEO Reaffirms No Negotiations
- Acquisition Rumor Denial: Abivax CEO Marc de Garidel emphasized that no acquisition discussions with Eli Lilly took place, asserting that such conversations would be illegal, demonstrating the company's firm stance against external distractions.
- Stock Price Surge Context: Abivax's shares have skyrocketed over 1,700% in the past 12 months, primarily driven by acquisition rumors and promising clinical trial data for its lead asset, obefazimod, against ulcerative colitis, reflecting strong market interest in its future potential.
- Government Engagement Requirement: De Garidel pointed out that any foreign acquisition must first involve public transaction communication with the French government, which has not occurred, further confirming the falsehood of the acquisition rumors.
- Focus on Core Business: Despite the acquisition rumors generating market attention, De Garidel stressed that the company will concentrate on its core operations, avoiding distractions from external noise to ensure continued progress in its R&D and market strategies.
See More
Abivax (ABVX) Acquisition Potential Could Boost Shares by 72%
- Drug Development Progress: Abivax's leading drug candidate, obefazimod, has shown significant efficacy in clinical trials, with 47.3% of patients having inadequate responses to prior therapies, indicating its potential to outperform existing drugs in the ulcerative colitis market.
- Market Valuation Surge: Currently valued at €8.74 billion (approximately $10.15 billion), Abivax is reportedly targeted for a €15 billion ($17.42 billion) acquisition by Eli Lilly, representing a 72% premium, highlighting its attractiveness in the biopharmaceutical sector.
- Competitive Advantage Emergence: The unique mechanism of obefazimod allows it to control ulcerative colitis symptoms without compromising the immune system, potentially attracting a broader patient population and enhancing Abivax's market competitiveness.
- Investment Risks and Opportunities: While the prospects for obefazimod are promising, potential clinical or regulatory setbacks could impact stock prices, necessitating careful consideration of acquisition possibilities and their effects on share value.
See More
