Santa Claus Rally Uncertain as 2025 May Repeat Negative Returns
- Market Rally Expectations: According to Citadel Securities, the S&P 500 has posted positive returns during the Santa Claus Rally period in about 75% of years since 1928, yet 2024 saw a -0.9% return, and if 2025 repeats this, it would mark a rare occurrence of two consecutive years without a rally.
- Interest Rate Impact: Following a 25 basis point rate cut, the current effective federal funds rate stands at 3.64%, down from 4.33% at the end of 2024, providing better support for the stock market, though future economic trends remain a concern.
- AI Sector Capital Inflow: In 2025, the global tech sector issued $428.3 billion in bonds, with the US tech sector responsible for $341.8 billion, indicating significant capital commitments to AI, despite OpenAI projecting a net loss of $9 billion this year.
- Manufacturing Weakness: While Trump's tariffs generated $124.5 billion in revenue in 2025, US manufacturing has contracted for nine consecutive months, highlighting deeper structural issues that may impact future market performance.
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Technical Analysis for AI
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Sleepless AI (AI) As of , Sleepless AI (AI) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 4 technical signals, shows that 1 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AI stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, AI is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Sleepless AI (AI) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 0.00938 | 0.0149 | 0.0201 | 0.0256 | 0.0308 | 0.0363 | 0.0415 |
| Fibonacci | 0.0149 | 0.019 | 0.0215 | 0.0256 | 0.0297 | 0.0322 | 0.0363 |
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