Paradigm Identifies Duplicate Volume Counts in Polymarket Trading Data
Double-Counting Issue: Paradigm researchers, led by Storm Slivkoff, found that Polymarket's trading volume figures are often double-counted due to redundant blockchain events in its on-chain data, primarily caused by the summation of OrderFilled events.
Complex Trade Anatomy: Slivkoff explained that Polymarket's transactions follow a rigid template with matched orders, leading to confusion among crypto data analysts due to the complexity of the on-chain data and the presence of redundant tracking events.
Simulator Development: Paradigm has created a simulator to demonstrate how various trading metrics behave across different trade types, allowing analysts to adjust parameters and perform their own simulations while noting specific invariants in trade positions.
Volume Calculation Challenges: The researcher highlighted that while calculating notional and cash flow volume for swap trades is straightforward, it becomes more complex for merge and split trades, with the OrderFilled sum often presenting inflated values.
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Technical Analysis for
Technical Sentiment Analysis for () As of , () is exhibiting a Neutral technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 0 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 0 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
() Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Fibonacci | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
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