Market Anticipates 25bp Rate Cut by Fed with 17.2% Probability

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: Jan 06 2026

Should l Buy BTC?

Rate Cut Expectations: The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 17.2% chance of a 25 basis point cut by the Federal Reserve in January 2026, which could significantly influence market dynamics, particularly for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Market Reaction: Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading at $93,911.06, with a market cap of $1,875,595,819,632 and a dominance of 58.38%, reflecting investor sensitivity to potential shifts in Fed policy.
Significant Trading Volume: The trading volume for Bitcoin within the day reached $53,447,224,058, indicating dramatic intraday movements that could affect investor risk behaviors amid changing policy expectations.
Economic Strategy Impact: The Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision is drawing attention, as expectations for future economic strategies could alter asset valuations and market trends, despite an 82.8% probability of rates remaining unchanged.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 3 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	35997.598	47998.799	60267.618	72268.819	84537.638	96538.839	108807.658
Fibonacci	47998.799	57269.947	62997.671	72268.819	81539.967	87267.691	96538.839

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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