Crypto Update: Analyst Labels 4-Year Cycle Approach a ‘Major Error’; Here’s the Explanation
Challenging the Four-Year Cycle Theory: Analyst Dan Gambardello argues that the crypto market operates on liquidity cycles rather than the traditional four-year Bitcoin halving schedule, suggesting that following the halving model could mislead investors.
Market Dynamics and Institutional Control: The rise of institutional control has shifted the crypto market's behavior, making it more aligned with macroeconomic factors and liquidity flows rather than retail-driven trends.
Decoupling of Altcoins from Bitcoin: Gambardello notes that altcoins have broken away from the Bitcoin halving cycle, with their movements now influenced by factors such as ETF demand, institutional rotations, and liquidity flows.
New Liquidity Cycle Era: The current crypto market is characterized by a new liquidity cycle driven by various macroeconomic indicators, replacing the previous reliance on halving events as the primary market driver.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 3 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 36103.034 | 48051.517 | 60373.054 | 72321.537 | 84643.074 | 96591.557 | 108913.094 |
| Fibonacci | 48051.517 | 57322.665 | 63050.389 | 72321.537 | 81592.685 | 87320.409 | 96591.557 |
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