Bitcoin Price Movements Resemble Early 2022 as Underwater Supply Drops Below 30%
Bitcoin Price Movement: Bitcoin has experienced a two-week decline, approaching the True Market Mean, with current prices around $96.1K, indicating a significant portion of total supply is underwater. The market is at a critical juncture, with the 0.85 quantile at $106.2K being a key resistance level.
Market Sentiment and Demand: Spot demand has weakened, with U.S. Bitcoin ETFs seeing net outflows and cumulative volume delta turning negative, suggesting reduced institutional interest and increased vulnerability to market shocks.
Derivatives and Options Trends: Futures open interest has been declining, and funding rates have cooled, indicating a neutral market positioning. Implied volatility has also dropped, reflecting uncertainty among traders about future price movements.
Market Manipulation Concerns: Crypto entrepreneur Lark Davis highlighted a potential coincidence where major financial institutions began offering crypto services to clients shortly after significant market sell-offs by crypto whales, raising questions about market manipulation.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 3 technical signals, shows that 0 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 36103.034 | 48051.517 | 60373.054 | 72321.537 | 84643.074 | 96591.557 | 108913.094 |
| Fibonacci | 48051.517 | 57322.665 | 63050.389 | 72321.537 | 81592.685 | 87320.409 | 96591.557 |
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