Bitcoin Open Interest Declines to Two-Year Lows Amid ETF Speculation

Written by Ohris M. Greyoon, Blockchain & Crypto Expert

Source: Coinmarketcap

Updated: Jan 09 2026

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Open Interest Decline: Bitcoin's open interest has fallen to two-year lows, reflecting market uncertainty regarding ETFs, particularly with no official confirmation of a $79,000 break-even point, leading to diminished market confidence.
Systemic Risk Exposure: The decline in open interest reveals systemic risks within leveraged structures, affecting market stability and highlighting the fragility of Bitcoin-backed corporate debt strategies.
Reduced Market Volatility: Although open interest has decreased by 30%, this has also led to reduced market volatility, indicating that the market is undergoing structural adjustments that may result in future consolidation.
Historical Patterns Reemerging: Similar to the deleveraging seen in the 2021 cycle, current market dynamics may signal ongoing volatility and market resets, with experts predicting that this fragility will continue to impact market trends.

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Technical Analysis for BTC

Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 4 technical signals, shows that 1 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.

Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.

Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.

Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level

Name	S3	S2	S1	Pivot Points	R1	R2	R3
Classic	36455.626	48227.813	61191.376	72963.563	85927.126	97699.313	110662.876
Fibonacci	48227.813	57676.87	63514.507	72963.563	82412.62	88250.257	97699.313

About BTC

Bitcoin is a decentralized cryptocurrency originally described in a 2008 whitepaper by a person, or group of people, using the alias Satoshi Nakamoto. It was launched soon after, in January 2009.Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created, according to Nakamoto’s own words, to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”Some concepts for a similar type of a decentralized electronic currency precede BTC, but Bitcoin holds the distinction of being the first-ever cryptocurrency to come into actual use.

About the author

Ohris M. Greyoon

Ohris M. Greyoon holds a Master’s in Computer Science from MIT and has 10 years of experience in blockchain technology and cryptocurrency markets. A pioneer in decentralized finance (DeFi) analysis, he leads Intellectia’s Crypto News, offering cutting-edge insights into digital assets.

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