Analyst Warns Bitcoin May Revisit $38K Amid Bearish Pressure
- Historical Drawdown Patterns: Analyst Sherlock highlights that Bitcoin has experienced significant drawdowns historically, with the largest being 93% in 2011 and 77% in 2022, indicating a trend of diminishing declines as the market matures.
- Current Market Forecast: Based on historical data, if the current cycle follows a 70% drawdown pattern, Bitcoin's bottom could be around $38,000, a projection that has sparked widespread discussion among investors concerned about future price movements.
- Institutional Liquidity Impact: Some market participants argue that increased institutional involvement may limit Bitcoin's downside risk, suggesting that the next drawdown could be closer to 55% or 60% rather than 70%, reflecting a more optimistic outlook.
- Ongoing Market Pressure: Despite a rebound from intraday lows, Bitcoin continues to face persistent market pressure, trading at levels not seen since October 2024, as investors assess whether the current corrective phase has concluded.
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Technical Analysis for BTC
Technical Sentiment Analysis for Bitcoin (BTC) As of , Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting a Sell technical sentiment. Our proprietary analysis, which aggregates 4 technical signals, shows that 1 indicators are flashing buy, while 3 are indicating sell.
Momentum Indicators: RSI, MACD & Overbought/Oversold Status Currently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stands at -, which suggests a Neutral condition. Meanwhile, the MACD (12, 26) indicator is at -, providing a Neutral signal for short-term momentum. Other oscillators like the Stochastic Oscillator at - and the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at - further confirm a - outlook for the stock.
Support, Resistance & Moving Averages From a structural perspective, BTC is trading below its 60-day moving average of $- and below its 200-day long-term moving average of $-. Key price levels to watch include the immediate resistance at $- and strong support at $-. A break above $- could signal a bull continuation, while falling below $- may test the next Fibonacci floor at $-.
Bitcoin (BTC) Support & Resistance Level
| Name | S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot Points | R1 | R2 | R3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Classic | 36441.945 | 48220.973 | 61177.695 | 72956.723 | 85913.445 | 97692.473 | 110649.195 |
| Fibonacci | 48220.973 | 57670.029 | 63507.666 | 72956.723 | 82405.779 | 88243.416 | 97692.473 |
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