Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance, demand, and strategic initiatives. The Q&A section reinforces this with positive insights on capacity growth, demand, and cost management. The company is expanding its portfolio and leveraging AI for efficiency. Although management avoided some specifics, the overall tone is optimistic, with strong guidance and strategic plans. The absence of negative indicators and the focus on growth and shareholder returns suggest a positive sentiment for the stock price over the next two weeks.
Key Financial Performance
Total Revenue Achieved nearly $18 billion in 2025, representing a 33% earnings growth year-over-year. This was driven by strong demand for brands and vacation experiences, disciplined execution of strategies, and robust financial performance.
Operating Cash Flow Generated nearly $6.5 billion in 2025, attributed to strong profitability and disciplined financial management.
Shareholder Returns Returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025, supported by strong cash flow generation.
Net Yields (Q4 2025) Grew 2.5% year-over-year, driven by both new and existing hardware and strong demand across key products.
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (Q4 2025) Achieved $2.80, higher than guidance, due to favorable revenue and better performance across joint ventures.
Total Revenue Growth (Q4 2025) Increased by 13% year-over-year, driven by strong demand and capacity growth.
Net Cruise Costs Excluding Fuel (Q4 2025) Decreased by 6.3% year-over-year, reflecting sustainable efficiencies in operations.
Adjusted EBITDA (Full Year 2025) Grew by 17.6% to just over $7 billion, driven by strong demand and operational execution.
Adjusted Earnings Per Share (Full Year 2025) Increased by 33% to $15.64, reflecting strong financial performance and demand.
Operating Cash Flow (Full Year 2025) Generated $6.4 billion, reflecting strong profitability and disciplined financial management.
Guest Growth Since 2019 Increased by 45%, with millennials and younger guests nearly doubling, driven by strong brand appeal and vacation offerings.
Revenue Growth Since 2019 Increased by 64%, reflecting strong demand and strategic investments.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth Since 2019 Surged by 94%, driven by operational efficiencies and strong demand.
Net Income Growth Since 2019 More than doubled, reflecting strong financial performance and demand.
Operating Cash Flow Growth Since 2019 Grew by 75%, supporting continued growth and shareholder returns.
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Operating Highlights
Celebrity River Cruises Expansion: Commitment for 10 additional ships, expanding the fleet to 20 vessels by 2031, making it one of the largest European River Cruise operators.
Discovery Class Ships: Launch of Royal Caribbean brand's new Discovery Class ships with 2 firm orders and options for 4 additional ships.
New Ships and Destinations: Launched Star of the Seas, Celebrity Xcel, and opened Royal Beach Club Paradise Island in late December.
Caribbean Market Leadership: Caribbean yields have grown 35% since 2019, with continued yield growth expected in 2026 despite increased capacity in the region.
European and Alaska Markets: European capacity growing 5% in 2026, with strong demand from American and European consumers. Alaska capacity up 3% with premium hardware.
AI and Technology Integration: Embedded AI across commercial and operational areas, improving guest experience, supply chain forecasting, energy management, and marine operations.
Digital Engagement: 25% year-over-year increase in active app users and 10% increase in e-commerce traffic in 2025.
Exclusive Destination Portfolio: Opened Royal Beach Club Paradise Island, with plans for additional exclusive destinations like Beach Club in Cosmo and Perfect Day Mexico by 2028.
Sustainability and Efficiency: Fuel efficiency improved by 4% in 2025, with 10% of fuel consumption from LNG and biofuel blends in 2026.
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Risk or Challenges
Regulatory Compliance Costs: The expansion of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to cover 100% of emissions associated with European itineraries in 2026 will increase compliance costs.
Dry Dock Timing and Premium Hardware: The timing of dry docks and the inclusion of premium hardware in dry dock schedules will negatively impact yield comparisons, particularly in the second quarter of 2026.
Deployment Mix Changes: Deployment mix changes, including a decrease in high-yielding European capacity in the first half of 2026, will affect yield growth.
Elevated Capacity Growth in the Caribbean: Despite strong demand, elevated capacity growth in the Caribbean region could pressure yield growth.
Cost Headwinds from Private Destinations: Approximately 200 basis points of cost headwinds are expected from the ramp-up of private destinations, which do not contribute to APCD (Available Passenger Cruise Days) increases.
Fuel Costs and Efficiency: Fuel costs remain a significant expense, with 40% of fuel consumption unhedged. Although fuel efficiency is improving, the reliance on LNG and biofuel blends introduces cost variability.
China Itinerary Modifications: Recent itinerary modifications in China will result in a 30 basis point impact on yield growth in the first quarter of 2026.
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Guidance & Outlook
Revenue Growth: Revenue is expected to increase double digit year-over-year in 2026, with full year net yield growth in the range of 1.5% to 3.5%.
Earnings Per Share (EPS): Full year adjusted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $17.70 to $18.10, a 14% year-over-year increase.
Operating Cash Flow: Expected to deliver over $7 billion of operating cash flow in 2026.
Capacity Growth: Capacity is expected to increase by 6.7% year-over-year in 2026, with moderate growth in subsequent years.
Caribbean Market Performance: Caribbean yields have grown 35% since 2019, and continued yield growth is expected in 2026 despite increased capacity in the region.
Technological Investments: AI and disruptive technologies are being scaled to improve guest satisfaction, revenue, and operational efficiency, with a focus on personalization and reducing friction in vacation planning.
New Ship Launches: Legend of the Seas, the first Icon Class ship, will debut in Europe in 2026, with strong booking trends already observed.
Private Destinations Portfolio: Expansion includes the ramp-up of Royal Beach Club Paradise Island and future openings of Beach Club in Cosmo and Perfect Day Mexico, expected to enhance guest experiences and profitability.
Fuel Efficiency: Fuel consumption per APCD is expected to reduce by approximately 4% compared to 2025, driven by new hardware and deployment optimization.
Adjusted EBITDA: Expected to grow by 13% year-over-year in 2026, reaching just under $8 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of over 40%.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividends: Returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025. Competitive dividends are planned for 2026 as part of enhanced capital returns to shareholders.
Share Buybacks: Returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks in 2025. Opportunistic share repurchase programs are planned for 2026 as part of enhanced capital returns to shareholders.
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Key Q&A
Q:Could you elaborate on the further acceleration and momentum into 2026 that you cited? How do you see your portfolio differentiated today relative to the $2 trillion total vacation market?
A:Jason Liberty explained that the business is growing with a 6.7% capacity increase this year. Demand is accelerating, supported by loyalty programs and personalization efforts. The company is focusing on capturing a larger share of the $2 trillion leisure market by enhancing guest experiences, modernizing ships, and investing in destinations like the Royal Beach Club in Santorini. They aim to close gaps with other vacation experiences like Orlando and Vegas, which have higher APDs, and believe their offerings provide a higher value proposition.
Q:What are you seeing today in the Caribbean in terms of demand, pricing, and capacity? How does this align with your 2026 yield guidance?
A:Jason Liberty stated that demand for the Caribbean remains strong across all brands, with pricing higher than last year. The company is not concerned about oversupply in the region. For 2026, yield growth is expected to be moderate (2-4%), with some impact from redeployments to lower-yielding locations like China. Despite this, total revenue and Caribbean revenue are growing double digits, supported by investments in AI, loyalty programs, and guest experiences.
Q:How should we think about your business in terms of organic versus inorganic growth, particularly with new ships and the Royal Beach Club?
A:Jason Liberty noted that about half of the yield growth this year comes from new hardware, with the other half from like-for-like growth. The Royal Beach Club is ramping up slowly to ensure a perfect guest experience. Michael Bayley added that the Royal Beach Club has already become the top-rated experience in Nassau within four weeks of opening, with high guest satisfaction scores.
Q:Can you share more about the net yield cadence for the year, particularly for Q2?
A:Naftali Holtz explained that the cadence is influenced by dry dock timing, with more dry docks in Q2 and larger ships undergoing modernization. The ramp-up of the Royal Beach Club and deployment changes also impact the cadence. Specific Q2 details were not provided, but these factors contribute to the year-over-year comparison.
Q:What can you tell us about the new Discovery class ships and their impact on capacity and pricing?
A:Michael Bayley stated that the Discovery class will be a game changer, similar to the Icon class, but did not provide specific details. He mentioned that assumptions about size and capacity in the market are likely inaccurate. Naftali Holtz added that the company continues to focus on cost management and leveraging scale for profitability.
Q:What is driving the increased commitment to River cruises, and how do you plan to attract customers?
A:Jason Liberty highlighted strong demand from loyal customers and the trust in the Celebrity brand as key drivers. About 80% of bookings are from existing customers new to River cruises. The company sees River cruises as an opportunity to expand the market and attract high-quality demand.
Q:How do you view the current competitive environment in the Caribbean and the industry's pricing behavior?
A:Jason Liberty noted that the industry is more rational and focused on price integrity compared to a decade ago. Promotions are consistent with previous years, and travel partners are generating high-quality demand. The company aims to close the price gap with land-based vacations.
Q:What is your perspective on close-in booking strength and the shift towards shorter itineraries?
A:Jason Liberty explained that the company has scaled its short product offerings, which cater to guests seeking shorter vacations. These itineraries are closer in bookings but are well-managed through AI-based yield models. Michael Bayley added that short itineraries, especially those including Perfect Day at CocoCay and the Royal Beach Club, are highly popular and profitable.
Q:What are the factors contributing to your low net cruise cost growth, and is it sustainable?
A:Naftali Holtz attributed low net cruise cost growth to capacity growth (6.7% this year), economies of scale, and the use of AI and disruptive technologies for cost management. Jason Liberty emphasized that AI enhances guest and employee experiences while driving higher margins, making the cost structure sustainable.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific details about the Discovery class ships, including size, capacity, and pricing. They also did not comment specifically on Q2 net yield cadence, instead discussing broader factors affecting the first half and second half of the year.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Caribbean Group
Celebrity River
Celebrity Xcel
Cruise fleet
President
River Cruise
River Cruises
Royal Caribbean
Seas
approach
balance sheet
booking
cash flow
commitment ship
consumer
destination
digit yield
ecosystem
expansion Celebrity
experience
family brand
fleet vessel
guest
lifetime
loyalty
margin expansion
model
ocean River
program
technology AI
vacation
RCL Transcript
Sanofi (SAN:CA) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-29
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance, optimistic guidance, and strategic initiatives like capacity growth and exclusive land-based destinations. The Q&A section reveals confidence in product development and market strategy, with no significant concerns raised by analysts. The company's focus on cost management and margin expansion further supports a positive outlook. Despite the lack of market cap data, the overall sentiment suggests a positive stock price movement, likely in the 2% to 8% range.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-29
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance, demand, and strategic initiatives. The Q&A section reinforces this with positive insights on capacity growth, demand, and cost management. The company is expanding its portfolio and leveraging AI for efficiency. Although management avoided some specifics, the overall tone is optimistic, with strong guidance and strategic plans. The absence of negative indicators and the focus on growth and shareholder returns suggest a positive sentiment for the stock price over the next two weeks.
BNP Paribas SA (BNP:CA) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive10-28
The earnings call summary highlights strong financial performance with expected EPS growth and capacity expansion. New ship launches and increased consumer demand are positive indicators. The Q&A section reveals management's confidence in capital absorption and revenue growth, despite some uncertainties. The lack of dis-synergies from the AXA IM acquisition and the company's reassurance on capital strategies further support a positive outlook. Despite some unclear responses, the overall sentiment remains positive, indicating a likely stock price increase in the short term.
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive10-28
The earnings call summary and Q&A session indicate a positive outlook with strong demand, capacity expansion, and new ship launches. Yield growth and EPS projections are optimistic, and there's an emphasis on leveraging technology for efficiency. Despite some concerns about cost growth and oversupply in the Caribbean, the company's strategies for managing these factors appear sound. The market's reaction is likely to be positive, especially with new destinations and shareholder returns in focus, suggesting a stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
RCL Report
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