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<Full-day Summary> HSI Falls 325 Points; HSTI Declines 59 Points; AIA Drops More Than 5%; ZTO EXPRESS-W, BOC HONG KONG, SHK PPT, REALORD GROUP, SANY INT'L Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases

4.0

01-29aastocks

JPM Maintains Overweight Rating on MENGNIU DAIRY, Lowers Target Price to HKD20, Anticipates Sales and Earnings Recovery This Year

4.0

01-27aastocks

Citi Raises MENGNIU DAIRY's Target Price to HKD21.1, Expects Operating Profit Margin to Rebound This Year

8.5

01-20aastocks

CN Dairy Company Junlebao Submits IPO Application in Hong Kong; MENGNIU DAIRY Previously Held Significant Stake

4.5

2025-12-31aastocks

Analysis of the Top 5 Strongest and Weakest Stocks in HSCEI for 2025 (Table)

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 124.30M, with retail investors contributing -43.89M and major investors adding 95.39M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

JPMorgan

Overweight

to

Hold

downgrade

$22 -> $20

2026-01-29

Reason

JPMorgan has rated MENGNIU DAIRY as Overweight due to expectations of a rebound in the company's sales and adjusted earnings in 2026, with projected increases of 2% and 17% year-over-year, respectively. This positive outlook is supported by an anticipated improvement in the competitive environment, despite moderate overall demand and competition from other beverages. Additionally, MENGNIU DAIRY's efforts to optimize its product mix and expand new channels are seen as strategies to regain market share. The firm also notes that strong sales during the Chinese New Year could serve as a short-term catalyst for the company's performance. However, they have cut the target price from HKD22 to HKD20.

JPMorgan

Overweight

to

Hold

Price Target

$22 -> $20

2026-01-29

downgrade

JPMorgan has rated MENGNIU DAIRY as Overweight due to expectations of a rebound in the company's sales and adjusted earnings in 2026, with projected increases of 2% and 17% year-over-year, respectively. This positive outlook is supported by an anticipated improvement in the competitive environment, despite moderate overall demand and competition from other beverages. Additionally, MENGNIU DAIRY's efforts to optimize its product mix and expand new channels are seen as strategies to regain market share. The firm also notes that strong sales during the Chinese New Year could serve as a short-term catalyst for the company's performance. However, they have cut the target price from HKD22 to HKD20.

Citi

Buy

maintain

2026-01-27

Reason

The analyst rating from Citi for MENGNIU DAIRY is based on the expectation of a more significant cyclical earnings recovery compared to other large consumer staples companies in China. The report highlights that the year-over-year sales decline has stabilized and anticipates that the operating profit margin will re-expand due to stabilizing raw milk prices, positive operating leverage, and a lower comparison base. Consequently, Citi has raised its target price for the company and maintained a Buy rating.

Citi

Buy

Price Target

2026-01-27

maintain

The analyst rating from Citi for MENGNIU DAIRY is based on the expectation of a more significant cyclical earnings recovery compared to other large consumer staples companies in China. The report highlights that the year-over-year sales decline has stabilized and anticipates that the operating profit margin will re-expand due to stabilizing raw milk prices, positive operating leverage, and a lower comparison base. Consequently, Citi has raised its target price for the company and maintained a Buy rating.

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

downgrade

$20

2025-10-15

Reason

The analyst rating for MENGNIU DAIRY was influenced by several factors outlined in Morgan Stanley's report. The key reasons for the rating include: 1. Prolonged Weak Liquid Milk Demand: The report indicates that there has been a sustained decline in demand for liquid milk, which negatively impacts the company's sales and profitability. 2. Market Share Loss: MENGNIU DAIRY is experiencing a loss in market share, further contributing to the challenges in maintaining sales levels. 3. Revised Earnings Forecasts: The EPS (earnings per share) forecast for 2025 was slashed by 13%, and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 7-8%. This reflects a more cautious outlook on the company's financial performance. 4. Sales Forecast Reduction: There was a 7% reduction in the sales forecast for 2025, indicating expected lower revenue generation. 5. Low Base for Future Growth: The report suggests that the low base for 2026 and 2027 may hinder growth prospects in those years. Despite these challenges, the target price was adjusted from HK$20 to HK$18.5, and the Overweight rating was maintained, suggesting that analysts still see potential for the stock to outperform the market in the long term, despite the near-term headwinds.

Morgan Stanley

Overweight

Price Target

$20

2025-10-15

downgrade

The analyst rating for MENGNIU DAIRY was influenced by several factors outlined in Morgan Stanley's report. The key reasons for the rating include: 1. Prolonged Weak Liquid Milk Demand: The report indicates that there has been a sustained decline in demand for liquid milk, which negatively impacts the company's sales and profitability. 2. Market Share Loss: MENGNIU DAIRY is experiencing a loss in market share, further contributing to the challenges in maintaining sales levels. 3. Revised Earnings Forecasts: The EPS (earnings per share) forecast for 2025 was slashed by 13%, and forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were reduced by 7-8%. This reflects a more cautious outlook on the company's financial performance. 4. Sales Forecast Reduction: There was a 7% reduction in the sales forecast for 2025, indicating expected lower revenue generation. 5. Low Base for Future Growth: The report suggests that the low base for 2026 and 2027 may hinder growth prospects in those years. Despite these challenges, the target price was adjusted from HK$20 to HK$18.5, and the Overweight rating was maintained, suggesting that analysts still see potential for the stock to outperform the market in the long term, despite the near-term headwinds.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

to

Buy

downgrade

2025-10-09

Reason

Goldman Sachs issued a research report indicating that Chinese dairy companies, including MENGNIU DAIRY and YILI, will face greater short-term revenue pressure due to weak consumption sentiment and intensifying price competition in the third quarter of 2025, driven by an ongoing surplus in raw milk supply. The firm lowered its sales and net profit forecasts for MENGNIU DAIRY by 2-3% and 5-7%, respectively, citing weak demand for liquid milk, deteriorating operating leverage, and increased promotional spending. For YILI, forecasts were reduced by no more than 2%, attributed to its diversified product portfolio and solid channel execution, which provide relatively high resilience. Consequently, Goldman Sachs cut its target prices for both companies but maintained a "Buy" rating for each stock.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

to

Buy

Price Target

2025-10-09

downgrade

Goldman Sachs issued a research report indicating that Chinese dairy companies, including MENGNIU DAIRY and YILI, will face greater short-term revenue pressure due to weak consumption sentiment and intensifying price competition in the third quarter of 2025, driven by an ongoing surplus in raw milk supply. The firm lowered its sales and net profit forecasts for MENGNIU DAIRY by 2-3% and 5-7%, respectively, citing weak demand for liquid milk, deteriorating operating leverage, and increased promotional spending. For YILI, forecasts were reduced by no more than 2%, attributed to its diversified product portfolio and solid channel execution, which provide relatively high resilience. Consequently, Goldman Sachs cut its target prices for both companies but maintained a "Buy" rating for each stock.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

5Y Average PE

19.36

Current PE

11.21

Overvalued PE

28.13

Undervalued PE

10.58

Forward EV/EBITDA

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

13.52

Current EV/EBITDA

6.83

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

18.09

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

8.95

Forward PS

5Y Average PS

1.03

Current PS

0.61

Overvalued PS

1.42

Undervalued PS

0.65

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