Shell PLC (SHEL) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction
Shell PLC (SHEL) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 07/31 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 66.21B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.13 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Shell's Q2 earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates, driven by weakness in the Chemicals & Products segment, debt concerns, and mixed analyst sentiment.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Negative Factors from Fact Data:
- Downward Q2 EPS/CFO Revisions: Piper Sandler slashed Q2 EPS estimates by 29% ($ 1.71 → $ 1.20) and CFO estimates by 10% ($ 10.7B → $ 9.6B), citing weakness across all segments, especially Chemicals & Products (projected below break-even). This directly impacts core metrics like adjusted earnings and cash flow.
- Chemicals & Products Segment Weakness: Shell’s own guidance highlights below-break-even earnings in this segment, which historically contributes ~15-20% of earnings. Lower refining margins and trading performance compound risks.
- Debt Concerns: Shell’s Nigerian acquisition and lack of clarity on working capital management amplify net debt risks (already up due to lease additions). HSBC and Citi lowered targets partially due to balance sheet pressures.
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment: Bernstein and Grupo Santander downgraded Shell to Neutral, citing valuation and momentum concerns. Even bullish analysts (e.g., Piper Sandler, JPMorgan) cut targets modestly.
Offsetting Positives:
- LNG Production Stability: Q2 upstream production guidance ( 1.66- 1.76 kboe/d) and LNG liquefaction volumes ( 6.4- 6.8 MT) align with consensus, providing revenue stability.
- Strategic Acquisitions: Shell’s Nigerian stake acquisition could strengthen long-term upstream capacity but likely has limited near-term cash flow impact.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short-Term Puts: Buy August $70 puts to hedge against EPS miss risks.
- Pairs Trade: Short SHEL vs. Long TotalEnergies (TTE) (Bernstein’s upgraded pick).
- Avoid Long Calls: High likelihood of downward volatility post-earnings.
Rationale: Consensus already reflects lowered expectations, but Fact Data (segment weakness, debt pressures) tilts risks to the downside. Focus on downside protection.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
SHEL Transcript
The earnings call indicates strong operational performance and strategic focus, with positive developments like the LNG Canada Train 2 startup and upstream production growth. The $3.5 billion share buyback program and divestment of non-core assets also contribute positively. Despite some concerns in the Q&A, such as resource longevity and high renewables OpEx, the overall sentiment remains optimistic, supported by strategic partnerships and capital efficiency. The company's focus on shareholder returns and long-term growth, alongside optimistic guidance, suggests a positive stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call summary reflects strong financial performance, with a consistent share buyback program and strategic growth in LNG and deepwater production. The Q&A session highlighted sustainable operational improvements and strategic use of AI, despite some concerns about OpEx increases and unclear responses on certain issues. The positive aspects, such as record LNG sales and robust shareholder returns, outweigh the negatives, leading to an overall positive sentiment.
The earnings call revealed strong financial performance, strategic investments, and operational milestones. The $3.5 billion share buyback program and robust balance sheet indicate financial health. Despite challenges in the Chemicals business, cost-saving measures and strategic partnerships are underway. Positive market strategies, like the focus on high-potential basins and refining dynamics, further bolster sentiment. Analysts' questions reflected confidence, with management providing clear, strategic responses. The overall sentiment is positive, with strong fundamentals and strategic initiatives likely to drive stock price upward within the next two weeks.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, strategic acquisitions, and operational milestones, with EPS exceeding expectations. Despite risks like competitive pressures and regulatory issues, Shell's strategic initiatives and shareholder return plans are well-received. The Q&A reveals management's focus on unlocking value and managing CapEx prudently. While some responses were vague, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by increased working interest in Ursa and successful divestments. The stock price is likely to see a positive movement over the next two weeks.
SHEL Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Shell PLC FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Shell PLC (SHEL) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onJul 31, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Shell PLC FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 66.21B in revenue and an EPS of 1.13 for Shell PLC's FY2025Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Shell PLC FY2025Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forShell PLC's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 31, 2025. Shell PLC Shell's Q2 earnings are expected to miss consensus estimates, driven by weakness in the Chemicals & Products segment, debt concerns, and mixed analyst sentiment.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade SHEL Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 31, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Shell PLC FY2025Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
