Starbucks Corp (SBUX) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 07/29 16:05:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 9.31B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.65 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The analysis indicates a likely earnings miss for Starbucks due to U.S. transaction risks, margin pressures, and uncertainty in the Chinese market.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Analysis:
- US Transaction Risks: Jefferies’ downgrade highlights credit/debit card, foot traffic, and app data indicating downside to U.S. comp sales, a critical metric. Melius Research also notes Starbucks’ U.S. pricing has outpaced consumer value perception, worsening transaction trends.
- Margin Pressures: Labor investments ($ 1.5B–$2B over two years) and China price cuts (5 yuan reductions to boost volume) create near-term margin headwinds. Guggenheim and TD Cowen explicitly lowered EPS forecasts due to these costs.
- China Uncertainty: While strategic partnership talks for China could unlock long-term growth, near-term impacts are unclear. Price cuts may not sufficiently offset volume gains in Q3, and TD Cowen warns proceeds from a stake sale would prioritize deleveraging, not EPS accretion.
- Mixed Innovation Impact: The Pumpkin Spice Latte (launching August 26) misses Q3 reporting (July 29), and AI tools ("Green Dot Assist") are in early testing. Protein drinks (to rival Dutch Bros) are unproven.
Consensus Context:
- SBUX has rallied ** 18.85%** vs. S&P 500 (+ 13.2%) since last earnings, reflecting elevated expectations.
- Revenue/EPS estimate revisions are down (- 0.3% and - 3.3%, respectively), signaling weakening confidence.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short Stock: Hedge against high expectations with a pre-earnings short position.
- Bear Put Spread: Buy $95 puts / sell $90 puts expiring August 1 to capitalize on downside.
- Avoid Calls: Elevated IV post-rally makes long calls risky unless Strong Beat catalysts emerge.
Rationale: Market pricing reflects optimism on U.S. turnaround and China, but Fact Data supports near-term execution risks. Labor costs and U.S. transaction softness create asymmetric downside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
SBUX Transcript
The earnings call indicates robust growth strategies, including a strong turnaround in North America, effective cost-saving measures, and promising pilot programs like the Green Apron Service model. Despite some unclear management responses, the overall sentiment is positive, with improvements in operating margins and significant growth potential in various platforms. The Q&A section supports this with insights into successful marketing and innovation efforts. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to experience a positive movement over the next two weeks.
The earnings call reveals strong performance in key areas like the Global Coffee Alliance and at-home coffee categories. The 'Back to Starbucks' strategy is positively impacting customer experience, despite some store closures. The Q&A section highlights optimism in new service models and market expansion. While management avoided specific guidance, the focus on strategic growth, improved customer perception, and transaction growth in younger demographics supports a positive outlook. The lack of detailed guidance is a concern, but overall sentiment leans positive due to operational improvements and strategic initiatives.
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook. The Q2 revenue growth and store expansion are positives, but the significant EPS decline and lack of detailed guidance are concerns. The Q&A highlights management's strategic focus and innovation, but also reveals uncertainties about cost offsets and margin recovery timelines. The absence of specific guidance and the cautious outlook from management suggest limited immediate upside, leading to a neutral sentiment.
The earnings call presents mixed signals: revenue growth and strategic investments are positive, but declining margins and EPS are concerning. The Q&A highlights management's focus on technology and staffing improvements, but lacks clarity on financial outlook. The shareholder return plan is vague, and competitive pressures persist. Given these factors, a neutral sentiment is appropriate, with potential for slight positive movement if strategic initiatives yield results.
SBUX Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Starbucks Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Starbucks Corp (SBUX) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onJul 29, 2025, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Starbucks Corp FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 9.31B in revenue and an EPS of 0.65 for Starbucks Corp's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Starbucks Corp FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forStarbucks Corp's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Jul 29, 2025. Starbucks Corp The analysis indicates a likely earnings miss for Starbucks due to U.S. transaction risks, margin pressures, and uncertainty in the Chinese market.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade SBUX Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJul 29, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Starbucks Corp FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
