RTX Corp (RTX) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
RTX Corp (RTX) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/27 06:55:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 22.74B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.46 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
RTX is likely to achieve a strong beat in revenue and defense backlog due to recent contract awards and growth in commercial aerospace.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data Highlights
- Defense Contracts & Backlog Growth:
RTX secured $ 1.7B Patriot missile contract (Spain), $841M military contract, $ 1.6B F135 engine sustainment deal, and $438M FAA radar modernization contract over the past three months. These awards directly boost near-term revenue and expand the defense backlog.
Trump’s proposed $ 1.5T military budget for 2027 signals increased future defense spending, which supports RTX’s long-term backlog visibility.
- Commercial Aerospace Momentum:
Collins Aerospace (RTX subsidiary) expanded partnerships with Vuzix (AR displays for defense) and AWS (satellite data/AI integration), indicating operational efficiency gains and innovation.
PhantomStrike radar deployment for the X-62A test aircraft highlights technological leadership, likely driving aftermarket demand.
- Margin Improvements:
- Strategic collaborations (e.g., Avio rocket motor facility) and cost-saving initiatives (e.g., AWS cloud integration) suggest margin expansion potential.
- Analyst Sentiment:
- Citi, BofA, and BNP Paribas issued bullish ratings citing RTX as a “megatrend” play. Jefferies and UBS flagged valuation concerns but retained Hold/Neutral, implying upside risk if execution surprises.
Key Risks:
Trump’s restrictions on defense contractor buybacks/dividends create headline risk but no immediate financial impact.
Pension costs (Jefferies’ EPS estimate cut) may slightly offset revenue gains.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
Pre-Earnings Plays:
- Stock: Buy RTX shares ahead of earnings; defense budget tailwinds and backlog growth are underappreciated.
- Options: Sell Jan 2026 $190 puts / buy $200 calls for leverage on upside.
Post-Earnings:
- If Strong Beat: Hold through Q1 2026 defense budget finalization.
- If Neutral/Beat: Sell covered calls at $210 strike.
Key Catalyst: Defense budget clarity and commercial aerospace supply chain normalization.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
RTX Transcript
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance, with significant revenue and net income growth, improved operating cash flow, and aggressive debt reduction. The raised guidance for sales and EPS, along with a robust order backlog, suggests positive future prospects. Despite inflationary pressures and supply chain risks, the company's strategic focus and successful HeatSponge projects contribute to an optimistic outlook. The Q&A session supports this sentiment, with no major concerns from analysts. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives, indicating a likely positive stock price reaction.
The earnings call revealed raised revenue and EPS guidance, alongside strong free cash flow and segment profit growth expectations. The Q&A section highlighted positive developments in fleet management, defense output, and strategic investments. Despite some conservative guidance and unclear timelines, the overall sentiment was positive, with tailwinds across all segments and a focus on margin expansion and debt reduction. The increased guidance and positive outlook in key areas suggest a positive stock price reaction.
The earnings call reflects a positive sentiment, with increased sales outlook, strong aftermarket performance, and significant new awards. Despite a slight EPS guidance reduction due to tariffs, the company's strategic partnerships and production improvements bolster confidence. The Q&A reveals robust demand and margin expansion potential, though supply chain issues pose some risks. Overall, the positive factors outweigh the negatives, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
RTX Slides
RTX Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the RTX Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
RTX Corp (RTX) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 27, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for RTX Corp FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 22.74B in revenue and an EPS of 1.46 for RTX Corp's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for RTX Corp FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Strong Beat forRTX Corp's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 27, 2026. RTX Corp RTX is likely to achieve a strong beat in revenue and defense backlog due to recent contract awards and growth in commercial aerospace.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade RTX Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 27, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like RTX Corp FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
