PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/28 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 8.24B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.19 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a neutral impact, as mixed signals from tailwinds and headwinds balance each other.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Tailwinds
- BNPL Receivables Deal: The $7B agreement with Blue Owl Capital (Sept 24) likely stabilized cash flow and reduced credit risk, supporting Adjusted Free Cash Flow.
- Product Launches: PayPal Ads Manager (Oct 7) and PayPal Links (Sept 15) may have modestly boosted small-business engagement and Venmo usage.
- Google Partnership (Sept 17): AI-driven commerce integration could improve long-term branded checkout growth but lacks near-term impact per Morgan Stanley.
Key Headwinds
- German TPV Disruption (Aug 27): Raymond James estimates a ~10bp drag on Q3 Branded TPV growth, critical for transaction margins.
- Margin Pressures: Goldman Sachs highlighted interest rate and credit product headwinds, weighing on Transaction Margin Dollars.
- Analyst Skepticism: Multiple downgrades (Goldman Sachs, Wolfe Research) cite poor visibility into branded checkout acceleration and 2026 margin risks.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short-Term Options: Sell strangles (neutral outlook) targeting $65-$75 range.
- Hedge with Puts: Buy Nov $65 puts to guard against downside from margin misses.
- Long-Term Bulls: Wait for post-earnings dip to build positions if Venmo/TPV trends stabilize.
Conclusion: Neutral stance reflects balanced risks, but elevated margin concerns favor defensive positioning.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
PYPL Transcript
The earnings call presented mixed signals. Positive elements included strong non-GAAP EPS growth, solid TPV, and strategic initiatives like partnerships with AI platforms. However, concerns arose from unclear guidance on transaction margins and price-based competition, coupled with slight declines in transaction margin outlook. The CEO change is aimed at execution, not strategy, and investments are expected to show results gradually. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties and competitive pressures, balancing out the positives, leading to a neutral sentiment prediction.
PYPL Slides
PYPL Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the PayPal Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 28, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for PayPal Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 8.24B in revenue and an EPS of 1.19 for PayPal Holdings Inc's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for PayPal Holdings Inc FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forPayPal Holdings Inc's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 28, 2025. PayPal Holdings Inc The earnings forecast suggests a neutral impact, as mixed signals from tailwinds and headwinds balance each other.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade PYPL Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 28, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like PayPal Holdings Inc FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
