Morgan Stanley (MS) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Morgan Stanley (MS) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 01/15 07:28:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 17.75B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.41 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Morgan Stanley is expected to outperform due to its strategic initiatives in crypto products, wealth management growth, and investment banking dominance, despite some offsetting risks.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Drivers:
- Crypto ETF Expansion: Morgan Stanley’s filings for Bitcoin and Solana ETFs signal a strategic push into crypto products, likely driving wealth management inflows and staking-related fee growth.
- Investment Banking Momentum: Leadership in high-profile IPOs (e.g., SpaceX, Discord) and involvement in large financing deals (e.g., EA’s $20B buyout) point to strong advisory and underwriting revenues.
- Wealth Management Growth: Acquisitions (EquityZen) and real estate investments (last-mile logistics, senior housing) expand fee-generating assets and client base.
- Regulatory Tailwinds: Fed’s relaxed capital requirements reduce pressure on balance sheets, supporting loan growth and NII stability.
Offsetting Risks:
A €101M Dutch tax penalty and SitusAMC cyberattack exposure could pressure EPS.
High valuation multiples ( 15.2x 2027 EPS) suggest expectations are elevated, requiring stronger-than-anticipated growth to justify further upside.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Options Plays:
- Long Calls: Jan 2026 $190–$200 calls to capitalize on revenue/EPS beats.
- Bull Put Spreads: Sell $180 puts / buy $175 puts for income with downside cushion.
- Equity Pair Trade: Long Morgan Stanley (MS) vs. Short Goldman Sachs (GS) due to MS’s clearer crypto/wealth growth catalysts.
- ETF Correlations: Monitor Bitcoin ETF inflows (e.g., BlackRock’s IBIT) as a leading indicator for MS’s crypto-driven revenue.
Rationale: Morgan Stanley’s diversified growth drivers (crypto, M&A, wealth) outweigh near-term fines, but high consensus expectations necessitate selective positioning.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
MS Transcript
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with record AUM and durable management fee revenues. The Q&A session reveals a focus on long-term growth and cautious optimism about AI and trading opportunities. Despite not raising targets immediately, management's emphasis on compounding earnings and strategic investments suggests a positive outlook. The lack of a market cap implies a moderate response, leading to a 'Positive' sentiment rating.
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance, strategic partnerships, and growth in various sectors like investment banking and wealth management. The Q&A section reveals analysts' positive sentiment towards these strategies, with concerns addressed adequately. The company's expansion efforts, efficiency gains, and optimistic guidance further support a positive outlook. However, some uncertainty remains due to regulatory factors and economic conditions, slightly tempering the overall sentiment. Despite this, the positive elements outweigh the negatives, leading to a positive sentiment rating.
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance, record AUM, and strategic capital deployment, supported by positive Q&A insights on strategic activity and M&A flows. Despite some uncertainties in macro conditions, management's focus on organic growth, strategic acquisitions, and shareholder returns suggests a positive outlook. The stable NII and record revenue further bolster confidence. While management was cautious on stablecoins, the overall sentiment remains favorable, indicating a likely positive stock price movement.
MS Slides
MS Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Morgan Stanley FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Morgan Stanley (MS) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onJan 15, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Morgan Stanley FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 17.75B in revenue and an EPS of 2.41 for Morgan Stanley's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Morgan Stanley FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forMorgan Stanley's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Jan 15, 2026. Morgan Stanley Morgan Stanley is expected to outperform due to its strategic initiatives in crypto products, wealth management growth, and investment banking dominance, despite some offsetting risks.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MS Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theJan 15, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Morgan Stanley FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
