Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) FY2025Q2 Earning Prediction
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is set to release its FY2025Q2 earnings performance on 08/05 06:30:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 31.71B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.22 for the FY2025Q2. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast suggests a likely 'Miss' due to softening refining margins, valuation concerns, and operational uncertainties.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Key Fact Data Insights
- Refining Margins Softening in June:
Piper Sandler flagged "modest downside" to Q2 estimates due to June margin declines, despite some recovery in late June/July. This aligns with Wells Fargo's lowered EPS estimate ($ 2.95 vs. consensus $ 3.23).
Analysts (Citi, Mizuho) highlight medium-term risks to crack spreads, suggesting near-term resilience but no significant outperformance.
- Valuation Concerns:
- Wolfe Research and Raymond James downgraded MPC due to valuation after its 14% stock rally (vs. S&P 500 +10%). This implies consensus expectations are already elevated, raising the bar for a Beat.
- Midstream Sale Uncertainty:
- The potential $ 2.3B sale of Northwind Midstream to MPLX could improve cash flow long-term, but the deal is still in talks and unlikely to impact Q2 results.
- Mixed Operational Signals:
- Analysts note "noisy" Q2 results (Barclays) and refining margin volatility. While distillate strength and tightening supply balances are positives, they are likely priced in.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Short-Term Puts: Buy Aug $160 puts to hedge against a post-earnings drop if EPS misses.
- Pairs Trade: Short MPC vs. Valero (VLO) or Phillips 66 (PSX), which face less valuation pressure.
- Wait for Sell-off: A miss could create a buying opportunity given midstream optionality and long-term refining tailwinds.
Rationale: High expectations (priced-in refining strength) and June margin softness tilt risk/reward to the downside.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
MPC Transcript
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with increased crude throughput and refinery optimization. The Q&A session reveals positive management sentiment towards Venezuelan crude access and capital discipline. Despite some concerns about USW negotiations and inflation, the overall outlook is optimistic with expected strong refined product demand and strategic project investments. The positive sentiment is further supported by favorable market conditions and capital return plans, suggesting a likely stock price increase in the short term.
The earnings call summary and Q&A reveal strong financial performance, positive market strategy, and robust shareholder returns. Despite some concerns about higher CapEx and unclear import strategies, management's confidence in dividend growth and competitive advantages in refining margins indicate a positive outlook. The company's ability to leverage market conditions, coupled with optimistic guidance, suggests a favorable stock price movement.
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong diesel demand and strategic growth initiatives are positive, but management's lack of specific guidance on key metrics and the absence of new partnerships or shareholder return boosts limit upside potential. The divestment of ethanol and focus on portfolio optimization are neutral factors, while the ongoing operational challenges and regulatory uncertainties temper enthusiasm. Consequently, a neutral stock price movement is expected.
The earnings call reveals mixed signals. While there are positive aspects like MPLX distribution growth and strong cash positions, challenges such as a net loss per share, regulatory uncertainties, and supply chain issues weigh negatively. The Q&A section provides some optimism with improved utilization rates and sustainable capture rates, but concerns about economic pressures and operational downtime persist. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, leading to a neutral prediction.
MPC Slides
MPC Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Marathon Petroleum Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q2 earnings report onAug 5, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Marathon Petroleum Corp FY2025Q2 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 31.71B in revenue and an EPS of 3.22 for Marathon Petroleum Corp's FY2025Q2.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Marathon Petroleum Corp FY2025Q2 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Miss forMarathon Petroleum Corp's FY2025Q2 earnings, with a prediction date of Aug 5, 2025. Marathon Petroleum Corp The earnings forecast suggests a likely 'Miss' due to softening refining margins, valuation concerns, and operational uncertainties.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade MPC Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theAug 5, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Marathon Petroleum Corp FY2025Q2?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
