Hershey Co (HSY) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Hershey Co (HSY) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/05 06:45:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 2.98B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.40 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Hershey is expected to exceed earnings expectations due to cocoa cost deflation, tariff relief, and operational efficiencies.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Justification:
Cocoa Cost Deflation & Tariff Relief: Multiple analysts (Piper Sandler, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo) highlight cocoa price declines (~50% from peak) and tariff removals, directly reducing input costs. This benefits gross margins, with Piper Sandler estimating "$50M per quarter savings" for Hershey.
Operational Efficiencies & Pricing Power: Lower cocoa costs allow reinvestment in growth (e.g., marketing) and reduced promotional spending. Morgan Stanley notes "sales momentum improving" and "credible multiyear earnings recovery."
Revenue Drivers: A 20% increase in marketing spend for TikTok/live-event campaigns (WSJ) and new product partnerships (e.g., JAKKS Pacific dolls) signal efforts to sustain consumer demand.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Bullish Plays: Buy calls expiring post-earnings (strike: $205-$210). The stock’s momentum (+17.7% vs. S&P 500) and EPS upside potential justify leveraged upside bets.
- Hedging: Pair long stock with puts (strike: $190) to mitigate valuation risks (Jefferies notes "rich" multiples).
- Avoid: Short-term straddles; implied volatility is elevated (per recent price target hikes).
Rationale: Cocoa/tariff tailwinds are material and underappreciated in consensus EPS. While revenue upside is limited, margin expansion drives a likely Beat, with a high probability of Strong Beat on EPS.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
HSY Transcript
Despite strong financial performance with a 7% increase in net sales and a 6% dividend increase, concerns about cocoa inflation, macroeconomic volatility, and volume declines due to price elasticity could offset positive sentiments. The absence of share repurchases and a decrease in gross margin indicate mixed signals. The company's proactive approach to risks and strategic priorities for growth, however, provides a balanced outlook, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
The earnings call reveals positive sentiment with better-than-expected financial elasticity, optimistic margin outlooks due to cocoa price declines, and strong brand investments. Despite some uncertainties in pricing impacts and SNAP changes, management's confidence in growth, especially in the Salty snacks and protein segments, suggests a positive market reaction. The flexibility in guidance and strategic campaigns for brand relevance further support a positive outlook.
The earnings call reveals mixed sentiments: strong innovation pipeline and brand investment are positive, but concerns over cocoa costs and Halloween performance are negative. The Q&A highlights management's optimism in core markets despite international challenges. However, unclear responses on key issues like pricing gaps and elasticity assumptions add uncertainty. Given these mixed signals and lack of market cap data, a neutral stock price movement is expected.
The earnings call summary presents a balanced view. Financial performance is stable, with moderate revenue and EPS growth expectations. Product development and market strategy show potential, but concerns about pricing, margins, and elasticity remain. The Q&A highlights positive retailer partnerships and innovation efforts, but management's lack of specificity on key issues like tariff impacts and elasticity assumptions introduces uncertainty. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, as positive factors are offset by potential risks and unclear guidance, suggesting limited stock price movement in either direction.
HSY Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Hershey Co FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Hershey Co (HSY) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onFeb 5, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Hershey Co FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 2.98B in revenue and an EPS of 1.40 for Hershey Co's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Hershey Co FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forHershey Co's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 5, 2026. Hershey Co Hershey is expected to exceed earnings expectations due to cocoa cost deflation, tariff relief, and operational efficiencies.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade HSY Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 5, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Hershey Co FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
