Deere & Co (DE) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Deere & Co (DE) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 11/26 06:27:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 9.81B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.96 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast for Deere's FY2025Q4 suggests a neutral outcome due to mixed signals from positive Precision Ag growth and negative impacts of tariffs and farmer spending weakness.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
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Prediction Logic & Rational
The Fact Data presents mixed signals for Deere's FY2025Q4 earnings report:
- Positive Factors:
- Precision Ag Growth: Analysts highlight Deere’s expanding installed base of subscription-based Precision Ag products (Wells Fargo, RBC Capital), which could support revenue stabilization in the segment.
- Tariff Cost Containment: Truist notes tariff headwinds are largely priced into 2025, with potential offsetting benefits in
- DA Davidson also suggests earnings may "inflect" in FY
- Negative Factors:
- Tariffs Impact: Steel/aluminum tariffs have already cost Deere $300M (NY Times), with another $300M expected in
- JPMorgan cites tariff-driven margin risks.
- Farmer Spending Weakness: Lower crop prices reduce farmer liquidity, pressuring equipment demand (NY Times).
- Antitrust Risk: The DOJ’s investigation into crop suppliers (e.g., Mosaic, Nutrien) could indirectly hurt Deere’s ecosystem.
Consensus Context: Revenue/EPS estimates have drifted slightly lower (- 0.25% revenue, - 5.3% EPS), and the stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by ~ 3.5% since last earnings. This suggests expectations are muted but not excessively pessimistic.
The conflicting dynamics (Precision Ag growth vs. tariffs/farmer weakness) create a balanced risk-reward profile.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options Play: Buy a put spread (e.g., long $450 put / short $420 put expiring December 2025) to hedge downside from tariff risks.
- Stock: Avoid outright long/short; wait for clarity on tariff pass-through and Precision Ag adoption.
- Post-Earnings: If DE guides FY2026 margins above 18% (vs. consensus ~17.5%), consider long exposure via calls.
Rationale: Neutral outcome is most likely, but asymmetric downside risks (tariffs, antitrust) justify defensive positioning.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
DE Transcript
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: strong Q4 financial performance contrasts with a year-over-year decline in FY 2025 sales. Positive elements include resumed share repurchases in 2026 and optimistic guidance on margin improvements. However, the overall sentiment is tempered by high tariffs, unfavorable geographic mix, and unclear management responses in the Q&A. Given the lack of a market cap and the mixed signals, the stock price reaction is likely to be neutral, with potential for slight volatility due to uncertainties and external factors.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While financial services net income is up, concerns about production alignment with demand, cautious ordering, and pricing competition in CNF create uncertainties. Positive pricing and AI investments are promising, but wide cash flow guidance and tariff impacts raise caution. The Q&A reveals optimism about international growth and AI potential but also highlights market uncertainties. With no strong catalysts like new partnerships or record revenue, and given the mixed guidance, the stock price is likely to remain stable over the next two weeks.
The earnings call reveals several negative factors: declining net sales across segments, pressures from high interest rates, and competitive pricing issues. Despite EPS growth, the company's guidance is cautious due to economic uncertainties and a challenging macro environment. The Q&A section highlights concerns about tariffs, margin protection, and unclear management responses, further dampening sentiment. While shareholder returns are emphasized, the overall negative financial performance and market challenges suggest a likely negative stock price reaction in the short term.
The earnings call reveals declining financial performance with significant year-over-year drops in net sales and revenue across key segments, pressured by economic and competitive factors, including tariffs and high interest rates. Although management is committed to shareholder returns, uncertainties about tariff impacts and vague responses in the Q&A section contribute to a negative sentiment. Despite some positive elements like new product launches and acquisition plans, the overall outlook is clouded by market challenges, leading to a likely negative stock price reaction over the next two weeks.
DE Slides
DE Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Deere & Co FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Deere & Co (DE) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onNov 26, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Deere & Co FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 9.81B in revenue and an EPS of 3.96 for Deere & Co's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Deere & Co FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forDeere & Co's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Nov 26, 2025. Deere & Co The earnings forecast for Deere's FY2025Q4 suggests a neutral outcome due to mixed signals from positive Precision Ag growth and negative impacts of tariffs and farmer spending weakness.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade DE Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theNov 26, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Deere & Co FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
