CME Group Inc (CME) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
CME Group Inc (CME) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/04 07:00:00 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 1.62B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.74 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast predicts a Beat driven by record ADV, crypto/futures expansion, and the FanDuel partnership.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification
Fact Data indicates positive momentum in key areas:
- Record Volume Growth:
Metals trading hit a single-day record ( 3.3M contracts, +18% MoM) in January 2026, driven by macroeconomic uncertainty.
Full-year average daily volume (ADV) reached 28.1M contracts (+6% YoY), with December 2025 ADV hitting 23.5M contracts.
International ADV surged +8% YoY ( 8.4M contracts), led by metals (+37%) and equity indices (+20%).
- New Revenue Drivers:
Expansion into crypto derivatives (Cardano, Chainlink, Stellar futures launching in February 2026) aligns with institutional crypto adoption.
FanDuel Predicts partnership (50/50 revenue split) could add $300M+ annually (~4-5% EPS upside), per Piper Sandler.
- Operational Stability:
SEC approved a new clearing house (Q2 2026 launch), positioning CME to capitalize on regulatory mandates for Treasury/repo transactions.
Stable adjusted expenses despite tech investments.
Offsetting Factors:
Temporary data center outage in November 2025 caused a trading halt but resolved quickly.
BofA flagged soft Q3 volumes and expense risks but outweighed by Q4 volume momentum.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy
- Bullish Options: Buy $300 calls (Feb 2026 expiry) to capitalize on crypto/FanDuel catalysts.
- Hedge: Pair with $275 puts to mitigate downside from operational risks.
- Stock: Accumulate shares on pullbacks; upward EPS revisions likely post-earnings.
Key Risk: High expectations (stock +8% vs. S&P 500) demand clear beats on RPC and crypto adoption.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
CME Transcript
The earnings call summary and Q&A highlight strong financial performance, with increased revenue, operating income, and a solid cash position. The partnership with FanDuel and the new pricing strategy show proactive market engagement. Despite some unclear management responses, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by a robust market data revenue stream and strategic capital allocation. The positive guidance and effective expense management further bolster the outlook, suggesting a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal several positive aspects: a strategic partnership with FanDuel, stable energy volumes, and significant proceeds from the OSTTRA sale. Although there are some uncertainties regarding sports-related contracts and parlays, the overall sentiment remains positive due to strong market data revenue growth and plans for 24/7 crypto trading. The slight reduction in operating expense guidance further supports a positive outlook. Despite some vague responses, the overall market strategy and shareholder return plans suggest a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call highlights record performance, strong international growth, and product diversification, with positive outlooks on new offerings like FX Spot+ and BrokerTec Chicago. Despite some concerns about tariffs and expenses, management's responses indicate effective risk management and strategic investments, supporting a positive sentiment.
The earnings call revealed strong financial performance with increased revenue, EPS, and operating income, alongside improved margins. The Q&A session highlighted growth in international markets and effective cost management, although some concerns were raised about management's clarity on certain issues. Despite this, the overall sentiment remains positive due to robust financial metrics and strategic initiatives like the BrokerTec launch, suggesting a likely stock price increase in the short term.
CME Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the CME Group Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
CME Group Inc (CME) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onFeb 4, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for CME Group Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 1.62B in revenue and an EPS of 2.74 for CME Group Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for CME Group Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forCME Group Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 4, 2026. CME Group Inc The earnings forecast predicts a Beat driven by record ADV, crypto/futures expansion, and the FanDuel partnership.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade CME Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 4, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like CME Group Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
