Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/05 ET in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 11.55B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 0.50 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
BBVA's earnings are expected to meet or slightly exceed expectations, supported by efficiency gains and capital return strategies, but high market expectations limit significant upside potential.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Fact Data Analysis:
- Mixed Analyst Sentiment
Positive Catalysts: Goldman Sachs expects BBVA to deliver double the sector’s sales growth in 2026 due to exposure to high-growth markets like Mexico and South America. JPMorgan highlights BBVA’s ability to return €30B in capital to shareholders over three years, signaling confidence in profitability and capital strength.
Negative Catalysts: RBC downgraded BBVA to "Sector Perform," citing a "full-ish" valuation, implying limited near-term upside unless results dramatically exceed expectations.
- Operational Efficiency
- Analysts (Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan) emphasize BBVA’s improving efficiency ratio and cost discipline, which supports margin expansion. This aligns with the key metric of operating expense growth staying below inflation.
- Capital Return Strategy
- BBVA announced a €2B share buyback following the failed Banco Sabadell bid. Buybacks directly boost EPS by reducing shares outstanding, suggesting EPS could outperform.
- Loan Growth Drivers
- Exposure to Mexico (a high-growth market with strong GDP trends) and Spain supports loan growth, a key driver of NII. However, consensus already reflects elevated expectations ( 26.8% stock outperformance vs. S&P 500). Key Risks
- Valuation Sensitivity: The stock’s 26.8% rally since last earnings suggests consensus already prices in strong loan growth and efficiency gains. A “Beat” requires material outperformance.
- CET1 Ratio Pressure: Share buybacks could temporarily reduce the CET1 ratio, though JPMorgan’s emphasis on capital returns implies confidence in capital adequacy.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options Play: Buy puts as a hedge against downside risk (high valuation = asymmetric downside on miss).
- Stock Play: Wait for post-earnings dip to accumulate if guidance reaffirms 2026 growth.
- Pairs Trade: Long BBVA / Short Eurozone banks with weaker capital return profiles (e.g., Deutsche Bank).
Rationale: The stock’s sharp rally reflects high expectations, making it vulnerable to profit-taking even on a modest Beat. Buybacks and efficiency gains support EPS, but revenue upside may already be priced in.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
BBVA Transcript
The earnings call summary indicates strong loan growth in key markets and improved net profits across regions. The company's strategic plans include significant shareholder returns and sustainability efforts, which are positive signals. The Q&A reveals some concerns about competition and cost growth, but overall guidance remains optimistic. The company's solid capital position and planned share buybacks further support a positive sentiment. Given these factors, the prediction is a positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary highlights strong financial performance across regions, improved efficiency, and strategic growth in corporate loans. Net profit increases in key markets and disciplined cost management are positive indicators. The Q&A section reveals robust growth ambitions and a commitment to shareholder returns, despite some uncertainties in Mexico and Turkey. Management's proactive strategies and optimistic guidance, along with planned share buybacks, suggest a positive outlook for the stock price.
BBVA Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA (BBVA) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onFeb 5, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 11.55B in revenue and an EPS of 0.50 for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Neutral forBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 5, 2026. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA BBVA's earnings are expected to meet or slightly exceed expectations, supported by efficiency gains and capital return strategies, but high market expectations limit significant upside potential.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade BBVA Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 5, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
