Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) FY2026Q1 Earning Prediction
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) is set to release its FY2026Q1 earnings performance on 02/12 16:01:00 ET in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 6.86B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 2.19 for the FY2026Q1. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The forecast indicates a strong performance driven by increased semiconductor demand, margin improvements, and reduced geopolitical risks.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Logic & Justification:
Fact Data Analysis vs. Consensus Expectations:
- Semiconductor Systems Growth (Core Metric):
Key Fact Data:
Multiple analysts (Deutsche Bank, Citi, Mizuho, KeyBanc) cite accelerating wafer fab equipment (WFE) spending, particularly in DRAM and advanced foundry/logic nodes.
TSMC’s strong outlook and capex plans (directly linked to Applied Materials’ foundry exposure) signal increased demand for semiconductor systems.
Applied Materials’ diversified portfolio (deposition, etch, CMP) positions it to benefit from HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) and AI-driven chip architectures.
Impact vs. Consensus: Consensus expects stable growth, but Fact Data indicates above-consensus WFE spending ($120B+ in 2026, up 10-15% YoY) driven by AI and memory demand.
- Non-GAAP Gross Margin Improvement:
Key Fact Data:
Analysts (Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley) highlight operational efficiencies and pricing power due to supply chain improvements and reduced China-related headwinds.
Impact vs. Consensus: Consensus assumes gradual margin expansion, but improved cost management and higher-margin advanced node sales could drive beat on gross margins.
- Free Cash Flow Growth:
Key Fact Data:
BofA and RBC Capital note Applied Materials’ ability to generate higher FCF from accelerating WFE spending and reduced geopolitical risks.
Impact vs. Consensus: Consensus likely underestimates FCF upside from increased capex commitments in AI/data centers and improved working capital efficiency.
- Reduced Reliance on China:
Key Fact Data:
Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank state China exposure has normalized (now ~25% of revenue), reducing regulatory risks.
Impact vs. Consensus: Consensus assumes lingering China risk, but diversification to U.S., Taiwan, and Japan markets supports revenue stability.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
Trading Strategy:
- Pre-Earnings Play: Buy shares or ATM calls (Feb 12 expiry) to capitalize on momentum from sector tailwinds (TSMC, AI capex).
- Post-Earnings Hedge: Sell OTM puts (strike $300) if Strong Beat scenario materializes, as reduced China risk supports bullish sentiment.
- Risk Management: Avoid short positions given overwhelmingly positive Fact Data and analyst upgrades.
Rationale: The combination of WFE spending acceleration, margin expansion, and reduced China risk creates asymmetric upside potential. Consensus estimates are too conservative given recent sector data.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
AMAT Transcript
The earnings call summary presents a mixed outlook with both positive and negative elements. The company anticipates lower revenue and earnings due to uncertainties in China and market concentration. However, there are growth opportunities in AI, advanced packaging, and power electronics. The Q&A section reinforces these mixed signals, with concerns about China revenue and management's unclear responses. Despite strong positions in leading-edge and DRAM, the lack of specific guidance and mixed performance in certain segments contribute to a neutral sentiment.
AMAT Slides
AMAT Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Applied Materials Inc FY2026Q1 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Applied Materials Inc (AMAT) is scheduled to release its FY2026Q1 earnings report onFeb 12, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Applied Materials Inc FY2026Q1 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 6.86B in revenue and an EPS of 2.19 for Applied Materials Inc's FY2026Q1.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Applied Materials Inc FY2026Q1 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Strong Beat forApplied Materials Inc's FY2026Q1 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 12, 2026. Applied Materials Inc The forecast indicates a strong performance driven by increased semiconductor demand, margin improvements, and reduced geopolitical risks.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade AMAT Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 12, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Applied Materials Inc FY2026Q1?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
